10.07.2008 21:00:00
|
Chevron Issues Interim Update for Second Quarter 2008
In its interim update for the second quarter 2008, Chevron Corporation
(NYSE:CVX) reported that upstream earnings are expected to benefit from
an increase in prices for crude oil and natural gas while downstream
earnings are expected to be significantly lower than the first quarter.
Additionally, "all other”
charges are anticipated to be substantially higher compared with the
first quarter.
Basis for Comparison in Interim Update
The interim update contains certain industry and company operating data
for the second quarter 2008. The production volumes, realizations,
margins and certain other items in the report are based on a portion of
the quarter and are not necessarily indicative of Chevron's quarterly
results to be reported on August 1, 2008. The reader should not place
undue reliance on this data.
Unless noted otherwise, all commentary is based on two
months of the second quarter 2008 vs. full
first quarter 2008 results.
UPSTREAM - EXPLORATION AND
PRODUCTION
The table that follows includes information on production and
price indicators for crude oil and natural gas for specific
markets. Actual realizations may vary from indicative pricing due
to quality and location differentials and the effect of pricing
lags. International earnings are driven by actual liftings, which
may differ from production due to the timing of cargoes and other
factors.
2007
2008 2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q thruMay
2Q thruJun U.S. Upstream
Net Production:
Liquids
MBD
468
458
451
437
439
n/a
Natural Gas
MMCFD
1,703
1,695
1,675
1,666
1,585
n/a
Total Oil-Equivalent
MBOED
752
741
730
715
702
n/a
Pricing:
Avg. WTI Spot Price
$/Bbl
64.96
75.25
90.58
97.84
118.83
123.78
Avg. Midway Sunset Posted Price
$/Bbl
55.18
65.43
79.13
85.50
106.72
111.25
Nat. Gas-Henry Hub "Bid Week" Avg.
$/MCF
7.56
6.16
6.97
8.02
10.45
10.94
Nat. Gas-CA Border "Bid Week" Avg.
$/MCF
6.85
5.68
6.34
7.61
9.51
9.82
Nat. Gas-Rocky Mountain "Bid Week" Avg.
$/MCF
3.72
2.83
3.33
6.87
8.26
8.41
Average Realizations:
Crude
$/Bbl
58.89
68.70
81.57
89.63
109.19
n/a
Liquids
$/Bbl
57.27
66.53
79.04
86.63
104.12
n/a
Natural Gas
$/MCF
6.56
5.43
6.08
7.55
9.42
n/a
International Upstream Net Production:
Liquids
MBD
1,297
1,274
1,297
1,228
1,203
n/a
Natural Gas
MMCFD
3,314
3,288
3,408
3,768
3,668
n/a
Mined Bitumen
MBD
29
28
18
28
23
n/a
Total Oil Equivalent - incl. Mined Bitumen
MBOED
1,878
1,850
1,883
1,884
1,838
n/a
Pricing:
Avg. Brent Spot Price
$/Bbl
68.73
74.70
89.00
98.32
116.40
122.82
Average Realizations:
Liquids
$/Bbl
61.32
67.11
80.43
86.13
106.14
n/a
Natural Gas
$/MCF
3.64
3.78
4.32
4.83
5.46
n/a
U.S. liquids production was essentially unchanged during the first two
months of the second quarter, while international liquids production
declined about 2 percent. The increase in crude oil prices during this
period reduced the company’s production under
cost-recovery and variable-royalty provisions of certain international
production contracts. U.S. natural gas production decreased nearly 5
percent primarily due to operational downtime and natural field
declines. International natural gas production decreased about 3
percent, reflecting the absence of the first quarter’s
favorable unitization adjustment in Indonesia.
U.S. crude oil realizations rose more than $19 per barrel to $109.19.
International liquids realizations averaged $106.14 per barrel, up about
$20 per barrel from the first quarter. U.S. natural gas realizations
increased $1.87 to $9.42 per thousand cubic feet, while international
natural gas realizations rose $0.63 to $5.46 per thousand cubic feet.
DOWNSTREAM –
REFINING, MARKETING AND TRANSPORTATION
The table that follows includes industry benchmark indicators for
refining and marketing margins. Actual margins realized by the
company may differ significantly due to location and product mix
effects, planned and unplanned shutdown activity and other
company-specific and operational factors.
2007
2008 2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q thruMay
2Q thruJun Downstream
Market Indicators:
$/Bbl
Refining Margins
US West Coast – Blended 5-3-1-1
36.32
19.57
22.49
20.39
26.41
27.70
US Gulf Coast – Maya 5-3-1-1
34.61
25.16
23.42
26.35
36.62
35.89
Singapore – Dubai 3-1-1-1
8.87
5.84
7.33
6.64
9.29
8.73
N.W. Europe – Brent 3-1-1-1
2.08
0.06
1.27
0.41
3.13
2.57
Marketing Margins
U.S. West – Weighted DTW to Spot
4.99
3.79
3.96
2.83
(0.02)
1.18
U.S. East – Houston Mogas Rack to Spot
4.30
3.83
3.58
3.16
2.90
2.69
Asia-Pacific / Middle East / Africa
3.66
3.79
2.67
3.32
0.95
n/a
United Kingdom
5.45
6.19
3.84
3.88
4.13
n/a
Latin America
7.39
6.13
7.41
7.06
8.11
n/a
Actual Volumes:
U.S. Refinery Input
MBD
881
799
838
894
772
n/a
Int’l Refinery Input
MBD
942
1,043
1,030
967
955
n/a
U.S. Branded Mogas Sales
MBD
630
645
620
601
600
n/a
Compared with the first quarter, refining indicator margins for the full
second quarter improved. Marketing margins were mixed.
Asia-Pacific/Middle East/Africa marketing margins declined between the
first quarter and the first two months of the second quarter. U.S.
marketing indicator margins were lower, particularly on the West Coast,
comparing the first quarter to the full second quarter. Despite improved
refining indicator margins, earnings for the downstream segment in the
full second quarter are expected to decline well in excess of $500
million compared with the first quarter.
The projected decline in downstream earnings between sequential quarters
reflects the following factors:
Timing effects associated with the
increase in crude prices. From the start to the end of the
second quarter, WTI crude prices increased $39 per barrel. This rapid
rise in crude prices led to lower second quarter earnings, primarily
due to impacts on provisionally priced crudes and derivative positions
under mark-to-market accounting.
The effects of planned and unplanned
refinery downtime. The company did not fully benefit from
higher U.S. Gulf Coast margins due to planned downtime at the
Pascagoula, Mississippi refinery. The downtime was associated with
scheduled maintenance of the refinery’s No.
1 crude unit for 51 days and the coker for 63 days during the second
quarter. The crude unit resumed operations in mid-May and the coker in
early July. In addition, the company’s
refinery at Pembroke, United Kingdom experienced unplanned downtime in
late April. The refinery resumed full operations in late May.
Higher operating expenses,
including fuel and costs associated with the refinery shutdowns.
U.S. refinery daily crude-input volumes decreased primarily due to
scheduled maintenance of the Pascagoula Refinery’s
No. 1 crude unit. Outside the U.S., refinery input volumes fell slightly
due to the unplanned shutdown at the Pembroke refinery, partially offset
by the completion of a planned shutdown at the company’s
refinery in South Africa.
CHEMICALS
2007
2008 2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q thruMay
2Q thruJun Chemicals Source: CMAI
Cents/lb
Ethylene Industry Cash Margin
10.88
11.46
9.83
10.72
11.76
11.52
HDPE Industry Contract Sales Margin
14.20
14.43
13.63
14.87
15.05
15.68
Styrene Industry Contract Sales Margin
11.57
11.56
10.70
11.57
11.70
11.06
Note: Prices, economics, and views expressed by CMAI are
strictly the opinion of CMAI and Purvin & Gertz and are based on
information collected within the public sector and on assessments
by CMAI and Purvin & Gertz staff utilizing reasonable care
consistent with normal industry practice. CMAI and Purvin & Gertz
make no guarantee or warranty and assume no liability as to their
use.
In the Chemicals segment, earnings for the full second quarter are
expected to be roughly unchanged from the first quarter. The absence of
the first quarter’s provision for
environmental remediation is projected to be largely offset by increased
plant maintenance activity.
ALL OTHER
The company’s guidance for the quarterly net
after-tax charges related to corporate and other activities is between
$250 million and $300 million. Due to the potential for irregularly
occurring accruals related to income taxes, pension settlements and
other matters, actual results may significantly differ from the guidance
range.
For the full second quarter, net charges are expected to be
significantly higher than the standard guidance range, primarily
reflecting charges for environmental remediation, along with other
corporate items.
NOTICE Chevron’s discussion of second quarter
2008 earnings with security analysts will take place on Friday, August
1, 2008, at 8:00 a.m. PDT. A webcast of the meeting will be
available in a listen-only mode to individual investors, media, and
other interested parties on Chevron’s Web
site at www.chevron.com
under the "Investors”
section. Additional financial and operating information will be
contained in the Investor Relations Earnings Supplement that will be
available under "Events and Presentations”
in the "Investors”
section on the Web site. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT RELEVANT TO FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION FOR THE
PURPOSE OF "SAFE HARBOR'' PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES
LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 This Interim Update contains forward-looking statements relating to
Chevron’s operations that are based on
management’s current expectations, estimates,
and projections about the petroleum, chemicals, and other energy-related
industries. Words such as "anticipates,” "expects,” "intends,” "plans,” "targets,” "projects,” "believes,” "seeks,” "schedules,” "estimates,” "budgets”
and similar expressions are intended to identify such
forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees
of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties
and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and are
difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may
differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such
forward-looking statements. The reader should not place undue
reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the
date of this Interim Update. Unless legally required, Chevron
undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those in the forward-looking statements are crude oil
and natural gas prices; refining margins and marketing margins;
chemicals prices and margins; actions of competitors; timing of
exploration expenses; the competitiveness of alternate energy sources or
product substitutes; technological developments; the results of
operations and financial condition of equity affiliates; the inability
or failure of the company’s joint-venture
partners to fund their share of operations and development activities;
the potential failure to achieve expected net production from existing
and future crude oil and natural gas development projects; potential
delays in the development, construction or start-up of planned projects;
the potential disruption or interruption of the company’s
net production or manufacturing facilities or delivery/transportation
networks due to war, accidents, political events, civil unrest, severe
weather or crude-oil production quotas that might be imposed by OPEC
(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries); the potential liability
for remedial actions or assessments under existing or future
environmental regulations and litigation; significant investment or
product changes under existing or future environmental statutes,
regulations and litigation; the potential liability resulting from
pending or future litigation; the company’s
acquisition or disposition of assets; gains and losses from asset
dispositions or impairments; government-mandated sales, divestitures,
recapitalizations, changes in fiscal terms or restrictions on scope of
company operations; foreign currency movements compared with the U.S.
dollar; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted
accounting principles promulgated by rule-setting bodies; and the
factors set forth under the heading "Risk
Factors” on pages 32 and 33 of the company’s
2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K/A. In addition, such statements could be
affected by general domestic and international economic and political
conditions. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in
this report could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking
statements.
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