New York, August 09, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) upgraded the ratings of two classes and affirmed five classes of Morgan Stanley Capital I Inc., Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 1999-WF1 as follows:
Cl. H, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 9, 2011 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Sep 29, 2011 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Cl. K, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Sep 29, 2011 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
Cl. L, Upgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Sep 29, 2011 Upgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Cl. M, Affirmed at B3 (sf); previously on Feb 24, 1999 Assigned B3 (sf)Cl. N, Affirmed at Caa2 (sf); previously on Feb 24, 1999 Assigned Caa2 (sf)
Cl. X, Affirmed at B2 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrades are due to increased credit support due to amortization. The pool has paid down by 8% since Moody's last full review. The affirmations of the rincipal classes are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the Herfindahl Index (Herf), remaining within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their current ratings. The rating of the IO Class, Class X, is consistent with the expected credit performance of its referenced classes and thus is affirmed.
Moody's rating action reflects a cumulative base expected loss of 6.2% of the current balance. At last review, Moody's cumulative base expected loss was 4.5%. Moody's provides a current list of base and stress scenario losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. While commercial real estate property values are beginning to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases, distressed properties are cleared from the pipeline, and job creation rebounds. The hotel sector is performing strongly and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand. Moderate improvements in the office sector continue with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow. Performance in the retail sector has been mixed with lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with increased securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates. Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario reflects healthier growth in the US and US growth decoupling from the recessionary trend in the euro zone, while a mild recession is expected in 2012. Downside risks remain significant, although they have moderated compared to earlier this year. Major downside risks include an increase in the potential magnitude of the euro area recession, the risk of an oil supply shock weighing negatively on consumer purchasing power and home prices, ongoing and policy-induced banking sector deleveraging leading to a tightening of bank lending standards and credit contraction, financial market turmoil continuing to negatively impact consumer and business confidence, persistently high unemployment levels, and weak housing markets, any or all of which will continue to constrain growth.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating Fusion U.S. CMBS Transactions" published in April 2005, "Moody's Approach to Rating CMBS Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions" published in July 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.61 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a paydown analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade credit assessments is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the credit assessment of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the credit assessment level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit assessments in the same transaction.
The conduit model includes an IO calculator, which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit assessments; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point. For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 15, the same as at Moody's prior review.
In cases where the Herf falls below 20, Moody's also employs the large loan/single borrower methodology. This methodology uses the excel-based Large Loan Model v 8.4 and then reconciles and weights the results from the two models in formulating a rating recommendation. The large loan model derives credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from Moody's loan level LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage, loan structure, property type, and sponsorship. These aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and a proprietary program that highlights significant credit changes that have occurred in the last month as well as cumulative changes since the last full transaction review. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior full review is summarized in a press release dated September 29, 2011. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the July 16, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 95% to $52.5 million from $968.5 million at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 35 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 14% of the pool, with the top ten non-defeased loans representing 71% of the pool. Five loans, representing 3% of the pool, have defeased and are secured by U.S. Government securities.
Eight loans, representing 24% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact performance.
Six loans have been liquidated from the pool, resulting in a realized loss of $3.2 million (30% loss severity). Currently one loan, representing 8% of the pool, is in special servicing. It is the Spring Hill Market Place Loan ($4.4 million), which is secured by four retail properties totaling 108,416 square feet (SF) and located in Carpentersville, IL. The loan was transferred to special servicing on June 4, 2010 due to payment default. A loan modification was approved however the borrower did not close on it. The borrower subsequently filed for bankruptcy in April 2011 which was dismissed in July 2011. The borrower was performing under a forebearance agreement while pursuing refinancing and sale options however the agreement expired on July 22, 2012. Moody's has assumed a $2.0 million loss for this loan.
Moody's was provided with full year 2011 operating results for 74% of the pool. Excluding specially serviced and troubled loans, Moody's weighted average LTV is 36% compared to 38% at Moody's prior review. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 9% to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.0%.
Excluding special serviced and troubled loans, Moody's actual and stressed DSCRs are 1.80X and 3.57X, respectively, compared to 1.82X and 3.26X at last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
The top three loans represent 30% of the pool. The largest loan is the Ward Office / Retail Portfolio ($7.1 million -- 13.6% of the pool), which is secured by five properties located in Bel Air, Maryland (3 suburban office, 2 unanchored retail). The largest tenants include Gucci (20% of the NRA; lease expiration November 2027), Chanel (20% of the NRA; lease expiration October 2027) and Tiffany & Co. (12% of the NRA; lease expiration October 2027). The properties were 97% leased overall as of March 2012 as compared to 95% at the prior review. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 35% and 3.01X, respectively, compared to 40% and 2.76X at last review.
The second largest loan is the Silver Creek Shopping Center Loan ($4.6 million -- 8.7% of the pool), which is secured by 63,365 SF retail property located in San Jose, California. The property was 74% leased as of March 2012. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 49% and 2.50X, respectively, compared to 38% and 3.22X at last review.
The third largest loan is the Vista Oaks Apartment Loan ($4.2 million -- 8.0%), which is secured by a 108 unit multifamily property located in Martinez, California. The property is 94% leased as March 2012. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 44% and 2.34X, respectively, compared to 50% and 2.04X at last review.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Kimberly Brown Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Michael Gerdes MD - Structured Finance Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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