The outlook on the rating is negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
"BW's rating downgrade reflects its high debt leverage and weakened level of interest coverage, following a prolonged weakness in the shipping industry environment," says Vikas Halan, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.
"Moreover we do not expect any material improvement in BW's credit metrics -- and its weak financial profile -- in the next 2 years, given the unfavourable outlook on its profitability due to 1) an oversupply in the tanker segment; 2) depressed freight rates; 3) expiring tonnage contracts; and 4) rising bunker fuel costs," says Halan.
BW's credit metrics, which have been weak for its rating level, deteriorated further in 2011 with its adjusted Debt/EBITDA increasing to 6.2x from 5.9x in 2010 and EBIT/Interest declined to 1.1x from 2.6x.
Its pre-impairment EBITDA margin declined to 40% in 2011 from 44% in 2010. The fall was largely attributable to the company's tanker segment which was hit by oversupply in the industry leading to a 48% decline in average daily charter rates for that segment of BW. Its product and gas tankers have also continued to show weak profitability.
The oversupply situation and depressed freight rates are expected to continue for the next 2 years.
BW's profitability will also remain under pressure as more of its tonnages face expiring contracts. Out of 14 very large crude carriers owned by BW, 2 were on time charters at the end of 2011, and which will expire in 2012. Out of 12 product carriers, 9 are on time charters that expire evenly in 2012 and 2013.
In addition, Moody's does not expect bunker fuel costs to soften; putting pressure on BW's profit margins because they cannot be entirely passed on to customers. Bunker fuel costs have gone up 8% on average in the first 5 months of 2012. They were up almost 37% on average in 2011, compared with 2010.
"Another deterioration is BW's reducing flexibility relative to its asset value for supporting bank credit facilities," says Halan.
BW recorded a USD183 million decline in the value of its vessels in 2011 due to a fall in the market value of vessels in the industry, because of oversupply. This has increased pressure on the company to top up the collateral pool for its lenders.
Although BW has additional unencumbered vessels worth USD1.1 billion, only about one-fourth of this total is readily available to be offered as collateral. This should be sufficient to cover a further 10% decline in vessel values. The balance of unencumbered vessels -- comprising 8 unencumbered LNG vessels in a JV with Marubeni and 2 LNG vessels under construction, will be available only upon approval by the JV partner and on completion in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
An alternative source of funding is its 47% stake in Oslo listed subsidiary - BW Offshore, valued at approximately USD350 million based on the market value of the company as at 13 June 2012.
The rating outlook could return to stable if BW can demonstrate good liquidity, e.g. cash plus committed and available undrawn bank facilities above USD300 million, and an improvement in its profit margin, such that adjusted combined Debt/EBITDA (including BW Offshore) falls below 6.0x and combined EBIT/interest measures 1.5x-2.0x, on a sustainable basis.
On the other hand the rating could come under pressure if BW(1) experiences further deterioration in its profit margins; (2) takes on debt-funded expansion/acquisitions; or (3) experiences further declines in unencumbered assets, which are an important buffer for meeting the loan to value test for its bank credit facilities.
Credit metrics indicating downgrade pressure include Debt/EBITDA increasing beyond 6.0x-6.5x and or EBIT/interest falling below 1.5x--1.0x.
The principal methodology used in rating BW Group Limited was the Global Shipping Industry Methodology published in December 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
BW is a privately held holding company, of which 93% is owned by the Sohmen family and 7% by HSBC. BW owns a 47% stake in BW Offshore Ltd, an Oslo listed company and the world's second largest FPSO owner and operator.
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Vikas Halan Vice President - Senior Analyst Corporate Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.50 Raffles Place #23-06 Singapore Land TowerSingapore 48623 Singapore JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308 Philipp Lotter Associate Managing Director Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.50 Raffles Place #23-06 Singapore Land TowerSingapore 48623 Singapore JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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