Analysis on the Indonesian Telecommunications Industry, 2000-2025

DUBLIN, Nov. 28, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Indonesia - Telecommunications Industry Report - Revenue Analysis & Forecasts, 2019-2023" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

Indonesia is among the fastest developing telecommunications market in the world, driven by growth in both mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions. It is forecasted that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow strongly in the 2019-23 period after a slow down in 2018. Fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2000 to an all-time low in 2019.

Expanded coverage, greater affordability, service improvements, increased data usage and smartphone penetration are the main drivers of growth in the telecoms sector. The country continues to expand its fibre-optic network and 4G coverage, backed by strong investment in capital expenditure. Investment in the telecoms sector grew at a fast pace and momentum maintained expected in the 2019-2023 period.

Mobile subscribers numbers are growing again after the government enforced a SIM registration policy in 2018, impacting significantly the market while growth is forecasted again between 2019 and 2023.

Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow strongly through to 2023 after a decline in 2018 due to the SIM registration regulation with overall market growth resuming from 2019 onwards.

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018. The capital expenditure (Capex) from telecommunications operators is growing strongly as mobile operators build out their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand and increased smartphones take-up. Capex spend is expected to grow between 2018 and 2023.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

The mobile subscriber penetration rate fell in 2018, after the government implemented new requirements for SIM registration in May 2018. Growth to resume and accelerate again during the 2019-23 forecast period.

Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.

Benchmarked mobile data pricing across 8 countries in the Asia Pacific region found that Indonesia is lagging behind in terms of data download but we expect the country to catch up as 4G coverage is accelerating and smartphone penetration is increasing especially in regional areas.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the most cost per GB reduction mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Indonesian pricing is already fairly low when benchmarked against neighbouring countries.

Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push

Estimated broadband subscribers growth will be sustained by household growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises previously not able to connect now served by the Internet but now served by FTTH services.

The Indonesian fixed broadband market is growing at double rate year on year and will continue over the 2019-2023 period with a growing appetite for high-speed data among the expanding middle-income class in Indonesia driving fixed broadband take-up and household penetration

Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / e-Commerce

The long-envisioned Palapa Ring national broadband network is now completed and is due to become operational by the end of 2019. The US$1.3bn project incorporates eight different networks.

Mobile operators are accelerating their 4G LTE coverage with a strong momentum of 179 4G BTS per day during the June 2019 quarter. Indonesia's tower market is fairly mature with nearly 100,000 mobile towers used around the country growing by about 3,000-5,000 new towers, rooftops or infill sites per year across all operators. Mobile operators are also fiberising towers, small cells and rooftops at a rapid rate to accommodate data growth usage.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

Most telecommunications operators are in heavy investments phase both in fixed and mobile segments, spending heavily upgrading their 4G network infrastructure. The publisher expects a wave of consolidation in Indonesia not before 2022-2023, as margins get squeezed further and a new Capex cycle kicking with 5G.

The increase in smartphone penetration made possible by the availability of low-cost devices has triggered growth in e-commerce, tapping into the potential of Indonesia's emerging middle class with relatively high disposable income. GoJek, Tokopedia, Grab and Bukalapak are leading the pack with e-commerce, ride-sharing and mobile payments.

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Indonesian telecommunications industry, including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, and also features the following:

• Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
• Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
• Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
• Spectrum Holdings
• IoT Market Overview
• Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
• National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
• Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
• Telecommunications Infrastructure Review
• Telecommunications Transaction Database

Key Benefits of Buying This Report

• Benefit from the latest market opportunities
• Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
• Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
• Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
• Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
• Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
• Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via Operators Profiles

Companies Mentioned

• BizNet
• Indosat
• Kabel MNC
• Link Net
• Mitratel
• MyRepublic
• Protelindo
• Smartfren
• Telkom
• Telkomsel
• Tower Bersama
• Tri Indonesia
• XL Axiata

Key Topics Covered

1 Key Statistics
1.1 Indonesia's Population
1.2 Indonesia's Households
1.3 Indonesia's GDP

2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2023
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014:2019
2.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018:2023
2.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014:2025
2.4.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014:2018
2.4.2 Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.4.3 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018:2023

3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1 Telkom Indonesia Profile
3.1.1 Telkom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1.2 Telkomsel
3.2 Indosat Ooredoo Profile
3.2.1 Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3 XL Axiata
3.3.1 XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.4 Tri Indonesia
3.4.1 Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.5 Smartfren Profile
3.5.1 Smartfren Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.6 Other Players Profile
3.6.1 Link Net -
3.6.1 BizNet

4 Mobile Market
4.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014:2023
4.1.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014:2019
4.1.2 Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014:2019
4.1.3 Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019:2023
4.2 Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014:2023
4.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014:2018
4.2.1 Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2014:2019
4.2.2 Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2023
4.2.3 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014:2019
4.3 Spectrum Holdings
4.3.1 Existing Spectrum Holdings and 5G Trials
4.3.2 Upcoming 5G Auctions
4.3.3 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.4 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.5 Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.2 OpenSignal
4.6 Internet of Things (IoT)

5 Broadband Market
5.1 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014:2019
5.2 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018:2023

6 Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1 Fixed Infrastructure
6.1.1 Palapa Ring Completed
6.1.2 FTTH - 30m premises to go
6.2 Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
6.2.1 4G Mobile Coverage Expansion
6.2.2 Mobile Tower Market Share, 2019

7 Thematics / Opportunities
7.1 Going for Scale
7.2 Going for Scope
7.3 New Telco Operating Model
7.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
7.4 5G versus Fixed
7.4.1 5G Overview
7.4.2 Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

8 Telco Transaction Database

9 Methodology

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Indonesia
Figure 2: Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2018
Figure 3: Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2018
Figure 4: Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2018
Figure 5: Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014:2018
Figure 6: Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000:2023
Figure 7: Revenue and EBITDA Mix: 2019
Figure 8: Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014:2018
Figure 9: Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018:2023
Figure 10: Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014:2018
Figure 11: Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018:2023
Figure 12: Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014:2019
Figure 13: Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2010:2019
Figure 14: Data Pricing Trends in Asia Pacific (USD per GB per Month), 2017:2019
Figure 15: Ookla Mobile Speedtest Ranking Comparison
Figure 16: Spectrum available for IoT in Indonesia
Figure 17: Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014:2019
Figure 18: Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018:2023
Figure 19: Indonesia: 4G Base Station Transceiver Rollout by Operators, 2015:2019
Figure 20: Estimated Tower Market Share, 2019
Figure 21: 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 22: Australia: Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010:2019

List of Tables
Table 1: Indonesia: Key Statistics
Table 2: Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
Table 3: Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019:2023
Table 4: Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014:2018
Table 5: Historical Telkom Revenue & EBITDA, 2014:2019
Table 6: Telkomsel Revenue & EBITDA, 2014:2019
Table 7: Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014:2019
Table 8: XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014:2018
Table 9: Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014:2018
Table 10: Smartfren Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014:2019
Table 11: Link Net Revenue Segments
Table 12: Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014:2019
Table 13: Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014:2018
Table 14: Historical Mobile ARPU, 2014:2019
Table 15: Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
Table 16: Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014:2019
Table 17: Historical Broadband ARPU, 2014:2019
Table 18: 4G Mobile Coverage & 4G Base Station Transceiver Count, 2014:2019
Table 19: Telkom, Indosat and XL Axiata Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 20: Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE:A and 5G)
Table 21: Australia: Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010:2019
Table 22: Telco Transaction Database, 2008:2019

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/kgiisj

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