NN IP: Bouncing or breaking

Economic Outlook

The real world is much more complex than in textbooks

Institutional flaws in the design of Europe’s monetary union were a recipe for trouble. Policy makers have taken important steps since 2012, but more sharing of burdens and risks is needed. Read more

Asset Allocation

Better data and brighter policy make markets bounce

The reduced dispersion in expectations amongst economists can be interpreted as a stronger conviction about the future direction of data. For investors this translates into perceived lower uncertainty of underlying fundamentals and can help to push down risk premiums. Read more

Fixed Income

Refocus on the Fed, but Bund-Treasury spread remains stable

Expectations of a rate hike by the Fed this summer have clearly increased in the past weeks. Despite the differences in the direction of monetary policy in the euro area and the US, the correlation between Bunds and US Treasuries has remained relatively stable.  Read more

Equity Strategy

Market gives the Fed the green light

The mood on the equity market has clearly improved. The hawkish shift in Fed expectations was well digested, while also the lower likelihood of Brexit helped. Furthermore, earnings momentum has improved, although we need to see a confirmation of an earnings pick-up to move markets really higher.  Read more

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