New York, December 06, 2012 --
Moody's Rating
Issue: Subordinate Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2012C; Rating: A1; Sale Amount: $600,000,000; Expected Sale Date: 12/11/2012; Rating Description: Revenue: Government Enterprise
Issue: General Revenue Refunding Bonds, Series 2012D; Rating: Aa3; Sale Amount: $272,000,000; Expected Sale Date: 12/11/2012; Rating Description: Revenue: Government Enterprise
Opinion
Moody's assigns an A1 rating to the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority's (TBTA) Subordinate Lien Series 2012C Revenue Refunding Bonds; a Aa3 rating to the General Revenue Series 2012D Refunding Bonds and a Aa3 to the remarketed General Revenue Series 2005B-4a Bonds. The outlook is stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The high quality Aa3 is based on the critical transportation links provided by the authority's seven bridges and two tunnels in the New York Metro area; relatively strong inelastic traffic demand through economic cycles; toll-setting autonomy and a historical record of predictable toll rate increases and a manageable capital improvement program (CIP) thus far. The rating also reflects lingering uncertainty regarding the regional economy recovery, low liquidity levels and lack of a debt service reserve fund (DSRF), though monthly deposits to debt service accounts ensure strong bondholder protection. The rating also reflects the TBTA's with respect to role in the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA Transportation Revenue Bonds rated A2), its required use of surplus for annual subsidization of the transit and commuter railroad systems and its 2008 capital borrowing to support the MTA.
STRENGTHS
» TBTA facilities provide critically important transportation links in the New York City metropolitan area
» Multiple facilities provide revenue diversity with no one facility accounting for more than 23% of total toll revenues
» Electronic toll collection (ETC) continues to grow and now accounts for close 80% of toll revenues in FY 2011, which facilitates smoother implementation of toll rate adjustments
» Traffic and revenue have been resilient through economic cycles and periodic toll increases over a long history
» Toll increases were implemented in 2008, 2009 and 2010 and expected in 2013 to maintain strong metrics as well as continue surplus transfers to the MTA, and future biennial toll increases are planned to yield target 7.5% revenue growth
»Security provisions for senior and subordinate bonds are adequate and ensure that debt service and capital expenses are paid prior to any transfers to subsidize transit operations, though below average liquidity and lack of a there is no debt service reserve fund (DSRF) are significant weaknesses
CHALLENGES
»Full assessment of impact of Hurricane Sandy continues and may require short-term cash flow borrowing in advance of expected insurance and federal reimbursements
» Legally required TBTA subsidies to the MTA constrain the authority's ability to build up balance sheet liquidity. The MTA's operating and capital budget shortfalls could result in increased TBTA leveraging for capital projects
» If planned but not yet board approved toll rate increases are not implemented in a timely manner, DSCRs for both senior and subordinate obligations would decline over the next several years as annual debt service gradually escalates
» Approximately 20% of outstanding debt is variable rate and authority has swaps, some of which are insured and could be terminated in the event of negative financial events relating to the insurer and a downgrade of the TBTA's ratings below certain levels
» The authority has a relatively weak balance sheet for a Aa- rated toll road and has no debt service reserve fund
» Traffic and revenue growth has slowed due to the economic recession, severe winter weather, the effects of toll increases and rising fuel costs. A sluggish economic recovery or a double-dip recession could require larger rate increase to achieve the target 7.5% revenue yield. The authority already has the highest are toll rates in the Metro Area
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook incorporates our expectation of continued steady regional economic recovery and the timely implementation of rate increases to sustain strong debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs). The ratings reflect solid credit fundamentals and assume that the TBTA will continue to grow net revenues; prudently fund asset maintenance and support total senior lien revenue DSCRs at or above the 1.75 times board adopted target.
What Could Change the Rating - DOWN
Significant declines in traffic and revenue combined with greater than currently expected capital borrowing, or increased surplus transfers to the MTA could place downward pressure on the rating. Senior DSCRs persistently below 1.7 times and total coverage levels below 1.5 times as well as debt to operating revenue ratios in excess of current levels (6 times) would place downward pressure on the ratings.
What Could Change the Rating - UP
The ratings are well-positioned at the current level. Sustained growth in traffic and revenues; higher DSCRs for both senior and consolidated debt and maintenance of liquidity levels could have a positive credit impact so long as the TBTA continues to invest in asset maintenance.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Government Owned Toll Roads published in October 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
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Maria Matesanz Senior Vice President Public Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Chee Mee Hu MD - Project Finance Public Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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