Limassol, November 12, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today taken actions on five Egyptian banks:
(1) National Bank of Egypt SAE, Banque Misr SAE and Banque Du Caire SAE: Moody's has lowered these three government-owned banks' standalone credit assessments to b3 from b2 and confirmed their long-term local-currency deposit ratings at B2, with a negative outlook.
(2) Commercial International Bank (Egypt) SAE: Moody's has lowered the bank's standalone credit assessment to b2 from b1, and downgraded the long-term local-currency deposit rating to B2, with a negative outlook, from B1.
(3) Bank of Alexandria SAE: Moody's has confirmed all the bank's ratings, including its b2 standalone credit assessment and Ba3 local-currency deposit rating, with a negative outlook.
The rating actions reflect the banks' high exposures to B2-rated Egyptian government securities and the weak capital buffers of government-owned banks in the context of the challenging domestic operating environment.
The rating actions conclude the review of these ratings that Moody's initiated on 22 December 2011, and subsequently extended in April 2012. Today's actions also follow the conclusion on 12 September 2012 of the review of Egypt's government bond ratings (see "Moody's confirms Egypt's debt rating at B2").
For a full list of affected ratings, please refer to the end of this press release.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- GOVERNMENT-OWNED BANKS
Today's rating actions on the three government-owned banks, National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr and Banque Du Caire, reflect Moody's view of (1) their relatively weak capital buffers and very high levels of sovereign debt exposures, which weigh on their standalone profiles; counterbalanced against (2) the very high likelihood of systemic (government) support, which prompted Moody's to confirm the deposit ratings at the same level as Egypt's B2-rated government bonds.
The lowering of the banks' standalone credit assessments is driven by their relatively weak capital buffers in the context of Egypt's currently challenging operating environment. Given Moody's expectation of further asset quality pressure, the rating agency views the banks' loss absorption capacity, with Tier 1 ratios ranging between 8.3%-11.1% according to latest financial statements, as commensurate with a b3 standalone credit assessment.
Moreover, Moody's also notes that the three banks' capital buffers are thin relative to their very high, and increasing, exposures to government securities (ranging from 500%-700% of Tier 1, according to the banks' latest financial statements). The very high concentration of government securities also heightens the banks' susceptibility to sovereign-related event risk.
The confirmation at B2 of the deposit ratings of the three government-owned banks, in-line with the government's rating, reflects Moody's incorporation of one notch of uplift from the banks' standalone credit assessments. This reflects Moody's assumption of a very high likelihood of systemic support from the Egyptian authorities and takes into account (1) the banks' 100% government ownership; (2) their systemic importance; and (3) sizable deposit market shares (ranging from 23% for National Bank of Egypt to 4% for Banque Du Caire).
--- COMMERCIAL INTERNATIONAL BANK
The alignment of Commercial International Bank's (CIB) ratings with the B2 government bond rating reflects the correlation of the bank's standalone credit profile with that of Egypt, owing to the bank's increasing exposure to government securities. Over 2012, CIB has increased its exposure to Egyptian government securities to 191% of Tier 1 capital, from 103% in June 2011. Accordingly, this high exposure links the bank's standalone credit strength to the sovereign's B2 creditworthiness and heightens its susceptibility to sovereign related event risk. Moody's says that the bank's high degree of exposure to these securities offsets the bank's otherwise stronger asset quality, capital buffers and risk-management compared with those of CIB's domestic peers.
CIB's B2 deposit ratings do not benefit from systemic support. Although the bank maintains a strong deposit franchise, with a 7.3% market share, the absence of systemic-support uplift reflects Moody's view that the government's capacity to provide support is constrained by its own B2 rating.
--- BANK OF ALEXANDRIA
Moody's says that the confirmation of Bank of Alexandria's b2 standalone credit assessment reflects the correlation of the bank's credit risk with that of Egypt, owing to the bank's high exposure to government securities. The confirmation of the bank's Ba3 deposit rating also reflects the likelihood of support from its Italian parent bank, Intesa Sanpaolo (Baa2 deposits, negative; BFSR C-/BCA baa2 negative).
As of June 2012, Bank of Alexandria maintained a high exposure to Egyptian government securities, at 256% of Tier 1 capital. This high exposure aligns the bank's standalone credit strength to the sovereign's B2 creditworthiness, as it heightens its susceptibility to sovereign-related event risk.
Bank of Alexandria's Ba3 deposit ratings incorporate two notches of parental-support uplift from Intesa Sanpaolo. This takes into account Intesa's 70.25% ownership of the bank and strong operational support.
--- RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOKS
Despite recent improvements, such as progress towards political stability and improving consumer confidence, the operating environment remains challenging. The negative outlooks capture the implications of this challenging operating environment on banks' financial metrics and are in line with the outlook on the government's debt rating.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
The negative outlooks indicate limited scope for upwards rating pressure in the foreseeable future. Upwards pressure could develop following improvements in the operating environment and a reduction in concentration to government bonds. For the government-owned banks, upwards pressure would develop following a material strengthening of their capital buffers, in conjunction with a reduction in their exposures to government debt.
Downwards pressure could result from (1) weakening of the sovereign's credit-risk profile; (2) rapid asset-quality deterioration, beyond Moody's current expectations; and/or (3) a material change in the banks' funding and liquidity positions, caused by deposit outflows.
BANK RATINGS AFFECTED BY TODAY'S ACTIONS
All the banks affected are headquartered in Cairo, Egypt.
--- National Bank of Egypt SAE
Moody's has affirmed the bank's E+ bank financial strength rating (BFSR) -- equivalent to a standalone credit assessment of b3 from b2 previously -- and confirmed (1) the B2 long-term local-currency deposit rating; and (2) the B3 long-term foreign-currency deposit rating.
Moody's has confirmed the ratings of the bank's senior unsecured foreign-currency debt, issued through its Nile Finance Ltd special-purpose vehicle, at B2 with a negative outlook. The bank's BFSR and local-currency deposit rating have a negative outlook and the short-term deposit ratings have been affirmed at Not-Prime.
++++++++
--- Banque Misr SAE
Moody's has affirmed the bank's E+ BFSR -- equivalent to a standalone credit assessment of b3 from b2 previously -- and confirmed (1) the B2 long-term local-currency deposit rating; and (2) the B3 foreign-currency deposit rating. The bank's BFSR and local-currency deposit rating have a negative outlook and the short-term deposit ratings have been affirmed at Not-Prime.
++++++++ --- Banque du Caire SAE Moody's has affirmed the bank's E+ BFSR -- equivalent to a standalone credit assessment of b3 from b2 previously -- and confirmed (1) the B2 long-term local-currency deposit rating; and (2) the B3 foreign-currency deposit rating. The bank's BFSR and local-currency deposit rating have a negative outlook and the short-term deposit ratings have been affirmed at Not-Prime.
++++++++
--- Commercial International Bank (Egypt) SAE
Moody's has affirmed the bank's E+ BFSR -- equivalent to a standalone credit assessment of b2 from b1 previously -- and downgraded the long-term local-currency deposit rating to B2 from B1. Moody's has confirmed the bank's B3 foreign-currency deposit rating. The bank's local-currency deposit rating has a negative outlook and its E+ BFSR has a stable outlook. The short-term deposit ratings have been affirmed at Not-Prime.
++++++++ ---- Bank of Alexandria SAEMoody's has affirmed the bank's E+ BFSR -- equivalent to a standalone credit assessment of b2 -- and confirmed the Ba3 long-term local-currency deposit rating and B3 foreign-currency deposit rating. The bank's local-currency deposit rating has a negative outlook and its E+ BFSR has a stable outlook. The short-term deposit ratings have been affirmed at Not-Prime.
++++++++ PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
As of June 2011, National Bank of Egypt reported total assets of EGP306.4 billion ($51.3 billion) and Banque Misr total assets of EGP177.5 billion ($29.7 billion).
As of December 2011 Banque du Caire had total assets of EGP49.3 billion ($8.2 billion).
At the end of June 2012, Bank of Alexandria reported total assets of EGP39.0 billion ($6.4 billion).
At the end of June 2012Commercial International Bank (Egypt) reported total assets of EGP89.6 billion ($14.8 billion).
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
The ratings of rated entity Bank of Alexandria were initiated by Moody's and were not requested by this rated entity.
Rated entity Bank of Alexandria or its agent(s) participated in the rating process. This rated entity or its agent(s), if any, provided Moody's access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entities or their related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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