New York, September 19, 2012 -- Moody's has upgraded the rating of one class of notes issued by Brascan Real Estate CDO 2004-1 due to improvement in the credit quality of the underlying collateral as evidenced by a lower weighted average rating factor (WARF) and a higher recovery rate (WARR). The upgrade is also due to greater than expected amortization of the underlying collateral since last review. The rating action is the result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation (CRE CDO and Re-Remic) transactions.
Moody's rating action is as follows:
Cl. E, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Oct 31, 2011 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Brascan Real Estate CDO 2004-1 is a currently static cash CRE CDO transaction (the reinvestment period ended in January 2010) backed by a portfolio of commercial mortgage backed securities. As of the July 20, 2012 Note Valuation report, the aggregate Note balance of the transaction, including preferred shares, has declined to $40.4 million from $300.7 million at issuance due to amortization and payoffs of the underlying collateral. The class A, B, C and D Notes have been retired.
There are no assets that are considered Defaulted Securities as of the August 31, 2012 Trustee report.
Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: weighted average rating factor (WARF), weighted average life (WAL), weighted average recovery rate (WARR), and Moody's asset correlation (MAC). These parameters are typically modeled as actual parameters for static deals and as covenants for managed deals.
WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool. We have completed updated assessments for the non-Moody's rated collateral. The bottom-dollar WARF is a measure of the default probability within a collateral pool. Moody's modeled a bottom-dollar WARF of 1,525 compared to 2,654 at last review. The current distribution of Moody's rated collateral and assessments for non-Moody's rated collateral is as follows: Aaa-Aa3 (66.7% compared to 29.7% at last review), A1-A3 (0.0% compared to 9.0% at last review), Baa1-Baa3 (0.0% compared to 14.8% at last review), Ba1-Ba3 (0.0% compared to 12.1% at last review), B1-B3 (26.0% compared to 14.3% at last review) and Caa1-Ca/C (7.2% compared to 20.0% at last review).
WAL acts to adjust the probability of default of the collateral in the pool for time. Moody's modeled to a WAL of 2.5 years compared to 2.6 years at last review. The current WAL is based on the current performing collateral pool and assumption about extensions.
WARR is the par-weighted average of the mean recovery values for the collateral assets in the pool. Moody's modeled a fixed 33.8% WARR compared to 31.2% at last review.
MAC is a single factor that describes the pair-wise asset correlation to the default distribution among the instruments within the collateral pool (i.e. the measure of diversity). Moody's modeled a MAC of 18.9% compared to 10.1% at last review.
Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.8, one of Moody's CDO rating models, which was released on March 22, 2012.
The cash flow model, CDOEdge® v3.2.1.2, was used to analyze the cash flow waterfall and its effect on the capital structure of the deal.
Changes in any one or combination of the key parameters may have rating implications on certain classes of rated notes. However, in many instances, a change in key parameter assumptions in certain stress scenarios may be offset by a change in one or more of the other key parameters. In general, the rated notes are particularly sensitive to changes in recovery rate assumptions. Holding all other key parameters static, chnging the recovery rate assumption down from 33.8% to 23.8% or up to 43.8% would not result in any modeled rating movement on the rated tranche.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating SF CDOs" published in May 2012, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Commercial Real Estate CDOs" published in July 2011. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
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Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
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Kumud Jha Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Michael Gerdes MD - Structured Finance Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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