New York, December 06, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) upgraded the ratings of nine classes and affirmed four classes of UBS Commercial Mortgage Trust, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-FL1 as follows:
Cl. A-2, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
Cl. B, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Cl. C, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Cl. D, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to Ba1 (sf)
Cl. E, Upgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Cl. F, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. G, Upgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to B2 (sf)
Cl. H, Upgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to B3 (sf)
Cl. J, Upgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. K, Affirmed at Caa3 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2012 Upgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. X, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. O-MD, Affirmed at B1 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to B1 (sf)
Cl. O-WC, Affirmed at Caa2 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrades are due to loan payoffs resulting in an increase of credit support. The affirmations of the principal classes are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio and Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) remaining within acceptable ranges. The IO Class, Class X, is consistent with the credit quality of its referenced classes and thus is affirmed.
Moody's analysis reflects a forward-looking view of the likely range of collateral performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside an acceptable range of the key parameters may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated during the current review. Even so, deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action. There may be mitigating or offsetting factors to an improvement or decline in collateral performance, such as increased subordination levels due to amortization and loan payoffs or a decline in subordination due to realized losses.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment given the weak pace of recovery and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a modestly positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with nine straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Recovery in the office sector continues at a measured pace with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by internet sales growth. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario is for continued below-trend growth in US GDP over the near term, with consumer spending remaining soft in the US. Hurricane Sandy may skew near-term economic data but is unlikely to have any long-term macroeconomic effects. Primary downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area accompanied by deeper credit contraction; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets, including China, India and Brazil; an oil supply shock; albeit abated in recent months; and given recent political gridlock, excessive fiscal tightening in the US in 2013 leading the US into recession. However, the Federal Reserve has shown signs of support for activity by continuing with quantitative easing.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating CMBS Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions" published in July 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based Large Loan Model v 8.5. The large loan model derives credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from Moody's loan level LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage, loan structure, property type, and sponsorship. These aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations. The model incorporates the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit assessments; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point . For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and Remittance Statements. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated June 15, 2012. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the November 15, 2012 Payment Date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance decreased by approximately 41% from last review to $494 million due to the payoff of four loans. The Certificates are collateralized by eight floating rate whole loans and senior interests in whole loans. The loans range in size from 3% to 31% of the pooled balance, with the top three loans representing approximately 63% of the pooled balance. The pool's Herfindahl Index is 6.
Moody's weighted average pooled trust LTV ratio is 94% compared to 96% at last review. Moody's weighted average stressed DSCR for the pooled trust is at 1.26X.
Cumulative pool bond loss totals $4,368,166 and affects pooled Class L. Interest shortfalls total $13,694 and affect rake classes O-MD and O-WC. In addition, as of the November 2012 payment date, outstanding servicing advances total $1,632,342 in mainly in connection with the smallest loan in the pool, Rex Corp NJ/Long Island Land Loan, currently REO. Moody's credit assessment for this loan is C, same as last review.
There are currently six loans totaling 73% of pooled balance in special servicing. However, the Maui Prince Resort loan (now called Makena Beach & Golf Resort) and Marriott Washington, DC loan (combined totaling 41% of pooled balance) have been modified. The Marriott Washington, DC Loan ($51 million; 11% of pooled balance plus $1.7 million of rake bond) is the fifth largest loan in the pool and the third largest loan that is currently in special servicing. The loan was modified and extended with final maturity date of August 2015. Moody's credit assessment for this loan is Ba3, same as last review. Three loans (MSREF Luxury Resort Portfolio, Hilton Long Beach and Fort Lauderdale Renaissance) are still in negotiations with the borrowers. The Rex Corp NJ/Long Island Land Loan is REO.
The largest loan in the pool is secured by a fee interest in the Maui Prince Resort Loan ($150 million; 31% of pooled balance plus $30 million in three non-pooled, or rake bonds) remains in special servicing. The hotel is now called the now called Makena Beach & Golf Resort. According to the special servicer (CW Capital Asset Management), the borrower requested that the loan remain in special servicing until further notice. As of October 2012, $11 million has been spent and room renovations were completed in November 2011.
The loan is secured by fee simple interest in Maui Prince Resort (310 guestrooms), two 18-hole golf course and 1,200 acres of undeveloped land located in Makena, Haiwaii on Maui. The loan was transferred to special servicing in June 2009. The rake investor assumed the A note and converted its interest in the rake, or non-pooled bonds to equity as part of the assumption. The A note received a principal pay-down of $12.5 million, and loan maturity has been extended by three years (July 9, 2013) with two one-year extension options. There is a B-note totaling $20 million outside of the trust.
Hawaii's lodging market, and notably Oahu, is performing extremely well. The Oahu market achieves the second highest Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) after New York City, according to Smith Travel Research. Hawaii caters to both international and domestic demand, and has seen a strong surge in demand from Japan, China and Korea markets. Maui caters to higher percentage of domestic lodging demand, and increase in performance has not been as pronounced as those on Oahu.
Moody's did not rate the three rake bonds associated with this loan (Classes M-MP, N-MP and O-MP). Moody's current credit assessment for this loan is B3, same as at last review.
The second largest loan in the pool is secured by fee and leasehold interests in MSREF Luxury Resort Portfolio Loan ($82 million; 17% of the pooled balance). The loan transferred to special servicing in May 2012 due to the borrower's inability to secure financing upon maturity. The loan is secured by three full-service resort hotels. Two of the properties, JW Marriott Grand Lakes and the Ritz-Carlton Grand Lakes, are located in Orlando, Florida on the same 325 acre grounds and represent 57% of the loan by allocated balance. The third property, the JW Marriott Desert Ridge is located in Phoenix, Arizona and represents 43% of the loan by allocated balance. Total net cash flow from the portfolio was $55.8 million for the trailing twelve months ending August 2012 compared to approximately $33 million for year-end 2011.
There is additional debt in the form pari passu ($463 million) non-trust debt included in in BALL 2007-BMB1 and MS 2007-XLF9 transactions, non-trust junior component and mezzanine debt outside the trust. The borrower is in the process of discussing a modification and extension. Moody's current credit assessment for this loan is Caa3, same as at last review.
The third largest loan, the in 2600 -- 2800 Colorado Avenue Loan ($75 million; 15% of the pooled balance), is secured by a fee interest an office building located in Santa Monica, California. The 306,000-square feet office building has Viacom International Inc. leasing over 42% of NRA through the end of 2016, and Lionsgate Entertainment Inc leasing another 42% of NRA through August 2015. The loan has a final maturity date of July 9, 2014. There is an additional debt in the form of non-trust junior component and mezzanine debt outside the trust. Net cash flow for year-end 2011 was $9.2 million and NCF for the first three months of 2012 was $2.6 million. Moody's current credit assessment for this loan is B2, same as at last review.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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Annelise Osborne VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Sandra Ruffin VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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