London, 06 December 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today taken rating actions on eight South African residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions following its reassessment of South African RMBS . The rating agency's reassessment takes into consideration the risks to RMBS ratings following the deterioration of the credit quality of the South African sovereign.
Specifically, Moody's has today downgraded the global scale ratings of one senior note, 19 junior notes and confirmed the global scale ratings of 2 senior notes and 2 junior notes in eight South African RMBS transactions. In addition Moody's has today downgraded the national scale ratings of one senior note, 16 junior notes and confirmed the national scale ratings of 2 senior notes and 3 junior notes in the same eight South African RMBS transactions. The rating actions are driven primarily by the reassessment of credit enhancement adequacy for each of the rated notes, given the increased risk of economic instability and political uncertainty as reflected by the lowering of the country ceiling of South Africa. The downgrades range from 1 to 3 notches with an average of 1 notch. One South African RMBS transaction, Private Residential Mortgages (Proprietary) Limited -- Series 1, remains under review for downgrade pending resolution of a restructuring proposal.
Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF309655 for the list of affected ratings. This list is an integral part of this press release. For a detailed rationale on each rating action, please refer to the list of affected credit ratings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--DRIVER FOR DOWNGRADE AND CONFIRMATIONS: REASSESSMENT OF CREDIT ENHANCEMENT ADEQUACY FOR SENIOR AND SUBORDINATED NOTES
Moody's has reassessed the adequacy of credit enhancement levels, given the higher risk of economic instability and political uncertainty in South Africa. In performing the reassessment Moody's incorporated the new maximum achievable rating in South Africa as a consideration in the asset loss distributions to ensure such distributions capture the increased probability of high severity loss scenarios. Refer to "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa" for more detail on our approach to assessing loss distributions in markets with a local currency ceiling. http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_SF274702
Key drivers for the downgrade of the South Africa's government bond rating included; 1) a decline in the government's institutional strength amidst increased socio-economic stresses and 2) a negative investment climate caused by infrastructure shortfalls; high labour costs and political instability. These factors combine to create weakening macroeconomic conditions that will elevate consumer credit risk. In addition retail credit consumers will also come under further pressure should the current low-interest rate environment change. As a result of these considerations Moody's has increased its expectations of higher loss scenarios for residential mortgage backed assets.
Based on Moody's expectation of increased loss volatilities and the increased probability of high severity loss scenarios; 1) securities whose ratings were downgraded were deemed to have inadequate credit enhancement to sustain their previous rating levels, 2) securities whose ratings were confirmed were deemed to have adequate credit enhancement to sustain their current rating levels.
-- OTHER DEVELOPMENTS MAY NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE NOTES
Deterioration of the general economic environment and specifically, the real estate and consumer credit market beyond the current consensus.
All key modelling assumptions apart from loss volatility have not been updated, loss volatility has been increased as a result of the incorporation of the new maximum achievable rating in South Africa as a consideration in the asset loss distributions, as described above. Cash-flow analysis has been updated to account for the passage of time and changes in asset and liability levels as reflected in transaction investor reports.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
In rating this transaction, Moody's used ABSROM to model the cash flows and determine the loss for each tranche. The cash flow model evaluates all default scenarios that are then weighted considering the probabilities of the lognormal distribution assumed for the portfolio default rate. In each default scenario, the corresponding loss for each class of notes is calculated given the incoming cash flows from the assets and the outgoing payments to third parties and noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss or EL for each tranche is the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each default scenario; and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow model in each default scenario for each tranche.
As such, Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios.
Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Methodology published in October 2012 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entities or their related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
John Paul Truijens Asst Vice President - Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Michelangelo Margaria VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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