- AT0000A0LYW1 - AT0000A0NFH7 - AT0000A0Q842 - AT0000A0RG65 The covered bonds which benefit for a guarantee of Tyrol (Ausfallbürgschaft) are not affected by this rating action and remain Aaa on review for downgrade.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating action follows Moody's downgrade of the issuer's senior unsecured rating from A2 to Baa2. For further information on this rating action please refer to "Moody's downgrades Hypo Tirol to Baa2/P-2 from A2/P-1; assigns negative outlook" published on 29 November 2012.
Moody's notes that the rating action on the covered bonds was not caused by a deterioration in the credit quality of the cover pool assets backing the covered bonds. The downgrade of the issuer's senior unsecured rating negatively affected the covered bonds through its impact on both the TPI analysis and the expected loss analysis. The Aa1 rating assigned to the existing covered bonds is expected to be assigned to all subsequent covered bonds issued by the issuer under this programme and which do not benefit from a guarantee of Tyrol. Any future rating actions are expected to affect all such covered bonds. If there are any exceptions to this, Moody's will, in each case, publish details in a separate press release.
KEY RATING ASSUMPTIONS/FACTORS
Covered bond ratings are determined after applying a two-step process: an expected loss analysis and a TPI framework analysis.
EXPECTED LOSS: Moody's determines a rating based on the expected loss on the bond. The primary model used is Moody's Covered Bond Model (COBOL), which determines expected loss as (1) a function of the issuer's probability of default (measured by the issuer's rating); and (2) the stressed losses on the cover pool assets following issuer default.
The cover pool losses for this programme are 18.5%. This is an estimate of the losses Moody's currently models if the issuer defaults. Cover pool losses can be split between market risk of 15.1% and collateral risk of 3.4%. Market risk measures losses as a result of refinancing risk and risks related to interest-rate and currency mismatches (these losses may also include certain legal risks). Collateral risk measures losses resulting directly from the credit quality of the assets in the cover pool. Collateral risk is derived from the collateral score, which for this programme is currently 6.2%.
The over-collateralisation in the cover pool is 409.7 %, of which the issuer currently provides 2.0% on a "committed" basis. The minimum OC level that is consistent with the Aa1 rating target is 17.5%, of which 9.5% should be provided in a "committed" form. These numbers show that Moody's is not fully relying on "uncommitted" OC in its expected loss analysis.
For further details on cover pool losses, collateral risk, market risk, collateral score and TPI Leeway across covered bond programmes rated by Moody's please refer to "Moody's EMEA Covered Bonds Monitoring Overview", published quarterly. All numbers in this section are based on the most recent Performance Overview based on data, as per 30 September 2012.
The cover pool losses are an estimate of the losses Moody's currently models if the relevant issuer defaults. Cover pool losses can be split between market risk and collateral risk. Market risk measures losses as a result of refinancing risk and risks related to interest-rate and currency mismatches (these losses may also include certain legal risks). Collateral risk measures losses resulting directly from the credit quality of the assets in the cover pool. Collateral risk is derived from the collateral score.
TPI FRAMEWORK: Moody's assigns a "timely payment indicator" (TPI), which indicates the likelihood that timely payment will be made to covered bondholders following issuer default. The effect of the TPI framework is to limit the covered bond rating to a certain number of notches above the issuer's rating.
For Hypo Tirol Bank AG's public-sector covered bonds, Moody's has assigned a TPI of High.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The robustness of a covered bond rating largely depends on the issuer's credit strength.
The TPI Leeway measures the number of notches by which the issuer's rating may be downgraded before the covered bonds are downgraded under the TPI framework.
Based on the current TPI of High the TPI Leeway for this programme is 0 notches, meaning the covered bonds might be downgraded as a result of a TPI cap once the issuer rating is downgraded below Baa2, all other variables being equal.
A multiple-notch downgrade of the covered bonds might occur in certain limited circumstances, such as (1) a sovereign downgrade negatively affecting both the issuer's senior unsecured rating and the TPI; (2) a multiple-notch downgrade of the issuer; or (3) a material reduction of the value of the cover pool.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating Covered Bonds" published in July 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following : parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Patrick WidmayerAsst Vice President - Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sDeutschland GmbH An der Welle 5 Frankfurt am Main 60322 Germany JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Juan Pablo Soriano MD - Structured Finance Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Deutschland GmbH An der Welle 5 Frankfurt am Main 60322 Germany JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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