New York, November 16, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) downgraded the ratings of 13 classes, affirmed 14 classes and confirmed one class of J.P. Morgan Commercial Mortgage Trust, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-LDP10 as follows:
Cl. A-2, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 10, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-2S, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 10, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-2SFL, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 10, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-2SFX, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 3, 2010 Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 10, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3S, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 10, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-1A, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 10, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-M, Downgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. A-MS, Downgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. A-J, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. A-JFL, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. A-JS, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. B, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Jan 20, 2012 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. B-S, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Jan 20, 2012 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. C, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. C-S, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. D, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. D-S, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. E, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. E-S, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. F, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. F-S, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. G, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Feb 25, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. G-S, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Feb 25, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. H, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Feb 25, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. H-S, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Feb 25, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Feb 25, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. X, Confirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
RATINGS RATIONALE
On August 23, 2012 Moody's placed six classes on review for possible downgrade in order to further evaluate the ongoing risk of future interest shortfalls and the timing and severity of losses from the two largest specially serviced loans in the pool -- the Skyline Portfolio Loan and the Solana Loan. While there is still a significant amount of uncertainty concerning the ultimate resolution two loans, at this point in time is does not appear that the expected resolution strategy will lead to a large spike in recurring interest shortfalls. This action concludes our review.
The downgrades are due to an increase in expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans.
The affirmations of the 14 principal bonds are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the Herfindahl Index (Herf), remaining within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their current ratings.
The rating of the IO Class, Class X, is consistent with the credit performance of its referenced classes and thus is confirmed.
Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 13.0% of the current pooled balance compared to 11.1% at Moody's last full review. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.
Moody's analysis reflects a forward-looking view of the likely range of collateral performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside an acceptable range of the key parameters may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated during the current review. Even so, deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action. There may be mitigating or offsetting factors to an improvement or decline in collateral performance, such as increased subordination levels due to amortization and loan payoffs or a decline in subordination due to realized losses.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating Fusion U.S. CMBS Transactions" published in April 2005, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.61 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a paydown analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade credit assessments is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the credit assessment of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the credit assessment level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit assessments in the same transaction.
Moody's review also utilized the IO calculator ver1.1, which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit assessments; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point. For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 48 compared to 54 at Moody's prior review.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and a proprietary program that highlights significant credit changes that have occurred in the last month as well as cumulative changes since the last full transaction review. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior full transaction review is summarized in a press release dated January 20, 2012. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the October 15, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate pooled certificate balance has decreased by 15% to $4.55 billion from $5.33 billion at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 190 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 5% of the pool, with the top ten loans representing 37% of the pool. The pool does not contain any defeased loans. One loan, representing 2% of the pool, has an investment grade credit assessment.
Forty-seven loans, representing 26% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact performance.
Eighteen loans have been liquidated from the pool at a loss, resulting in an aggregate realized loss of $134 million (34% average loss severity). Cumulative realized losses have increase by $93M since last review. Thirty-six loans, representing 18% of the pool, are currently in special servicing. The largest specially serviced loan is the Skyline Portfolio Loan ($203 million -- 4.5% of the pool), which represents a 30% pari passu interest in a $678 million first mortgage loan with the other pieces securitized in GECMC 2007-C1 and BACM 2007-1. The loan is secured by eight cross-collateralized and cross-defaulted office properties totaling 2.6 million square feet (SF) which are located outside of Washington, DC in Falls Church, Virginia. At securitization, over 55% of the net rentable area (NRA) was leased by the General Services Administration (GSA). The GSA has been vacating its space as leases expire. The portfolio was 62% leased as of November 2012. The portfolio was appraised at $296.6 million as of July 2012 compared to $872 million at securitization. The special servicer is in discussions with the borrower regarding a possible loan modification. The loan sponsor is Vornado Realty Trust (Senior Unsecured Rating Baa2, Stable Outlook). The servicer has recognized a $126 million appraisal reduction for this loan.
The second largest specially serviced loan is the Solana Loan ($140 million --3.1% of the pool), which represents a 39% pari passu interest in a $360 million first mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 1.9 million SF mixed use complex consisting of office, retail and a 198-room full service hotel located in Westlake, Texas. The non-hotel component is 67% leased, down from 84% in December 2011 as a result of the lease expiration and departure of a major tenant (Sabre, 20% of NRA). Loan modification discussions commenced, but there is no firm modification proposal being discussed at this time. The servicer is dual tracking foreclosure and a modification. A receiver was appointed in November 2011 and 133,000 SF of new leases and renewals have been executed since then. The servicer has recognized a $69 million appraisal reduction for this loan.
The servicer has recognized an aggregate $376 million appraisal reduction for 29 of the 36 specially serviced loans and one loan on the servicer's watchlist. Moody's has estimated an aggregate $347 million loss (49% average loss severity) for 33 of the 36 specially serviced loans.
Moody's has assumed a high default probability for 22 poorly performing loans representing 17% of the pool and has estimated a $122 million aggregate loss (17% expected loss based on a 50% probability default) from these troubled loans.
Moody's was provided with full year 2011 and partial year 2012 operating results for 89% and 70% of the pool's loans, respectively. Moody's weighted average conduit LTV is 123%, which is the same as at Moody's prior review. The conduit portion of the pool excludes specially serviced and troubled loans and the one loan with a credit assessment. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 10% to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.2%.
Moody's actual and stressed conduit DSCRs are 1.27X and 0.85X, respectively, compared to 1.31X and 0.85X at last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
Based on the most recent remittance statement, Classes C-S through NR and Classes H through NR have experienced cumulative interest shortfalls totaling $36 million. Moody's anticipates that the pool will continue to experience interest shortfalls because of the high exposure to specially serviced loans. Interest shortfalls are caused by special servicing fees, including workout and liquidation fees, appraisal subordinate entitlement reductions (ASERs), extraordinary trust expenses, loan modifications that include either an interest rate reduction or a non-accruing note component, and non-recoverability determinations by the servicer that involve a decision to stop making future advances as well as the potential clawback of previously made advances.
The loan with a credit assessment is the Center West Loan ($90 million -- 2.0% of the pool), which is secured by a 345,000 SF office property located in Los Angeles, California. The property was 68% leased as of December 2011 compared to 67% as of December 2010. Twenty-six percent of the leases expire by December 2013. The loan sponsor appears to be selective in his leasing efforts. Consequently, the property commands premium rents relative to the CBRE Econometric Advisors submarket average of $32.10 PSF, but also has a higher vacancy than the submarket average of 12.7%. Moody's current credit assessment and stressed DSCR are Baa3 and 1.28X, respectively, essentially the same as at last full review.
The top three performing conduit loans represent 14% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the Coconut Point Loan ($230 million -- 5.1% of the pool), which is secured by a 835,000 SF retail center located near Fort Meyers in Estero, Florida. The collateral consists of three retail components: a cinema-anchored village, a community center primarily consisting of big box retail, and a lakefront component comprising of casual restaurants. The collateral was 95% leased as of June 2012, which is the same as at last review. The in-line space is 87% leased. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 128% and 0.72X, respectively, which is the same as at last full review.
The second largest loan is the 599 Lexington Loan ($225 million - 4.5% of the pool), which is secured by a 1.0 million SF office building located in Midtown Manhattan in New York City. The loan represents a 30% pari-passu interest in a $750 million loan. The property was 98% leased as of June 2012, compared to 96% at last full review. The largest tenant is Shearman & Sterling LLP, which leases 45% of the NRA through 2022. Only 1% of the leases expire in 2012-13. Despite the increase in occupancy, performance declined slightly due to increased expenses. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 133% and 0.69X, respectively, compared to 129% and 0.71X at last full review.
The third largest loan is the Lafayette Property Trust Portfolio Loan ($203 million -- 4.5% of the pool), which is secured by nine cross defaulted and cross collateralized office properties containing 840,000 SF located in Alexandria, Virginia. The portfolio contains one property that is only 53% leased. However, portfolio occupancy is 83%, which compares favorably to CBRE Econometric Advisor's submarket average of 76%. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 123% and 0.84X, respectively, compared to 122% and 0.85X at last full review.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's received and took into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction and the assessment had a neutral impact on the rating.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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Peter Benjamin Simon Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Sandra Ruffin VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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