Issuer: RBC Global Covered Bond Programme
USD $1,500,000,000 0.625% Series CB9 Due 12/4/2015, Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa
RATINGS RATIONALE
The covered bonds are obligations of RBC and are also backed by a cover pool consisting of Canadian conventional residential mortgage loans.
Since the covered bondholders first have recourse to the issuer, we assume that the issuer will continue to make all payments due to covered bond holders while it remains solvent. We use the senior unsecured debt rating of the issuer as a means to determine the likelihood of default for a typical covered bond. The issuing bank, RBC, is a Aa3 rated bank, and thus the likelihood of default by the sponsor is very low.
Additionally, we analyze the cover pool to determine the potential severity of loss on the covered bonds in the event that investors need to rely on the cover pool to generate payments on the bonds after an issuer default. Our analysis of losses on the cover pool focuses on losses due to collateral risk and market risks. Collateral risk is the risk of actual losses due to asset defaults. The market risks that can arise are due to currency and interest rate mismatches between the cover pool assets and the covered bonds, as well as refinance risk. Refinance risk arises due to the fact that there is typically a maturity mismatch between the assets in the cover pool and the covered bonds, which necessitates a sale of all or a part of the cover pool in order to pay off a maturing series of covered bonds. This sale could result in a discounted price on the assets being sold.
The structure of this programme addresses cover pool losses with the following attributes:
1. The value of the cover pool. The cover pool is made up of high quality conventional mortgages originated by RBC
2. 7.5% committed overcollateralization, corresponding to a maximum asset percentage of 93%
3. Swaps to mitigate interest rate and currency mismatches
4. A twelve month extension period for soft bullet covered bonds
Moody's rating addresses the expected loss posed to investors. Moody's rating addresses only credit risks associated with the transaction; non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have a significant effect on the yield to investors.
KEY RATING ASSUMPTIONS/FACTORS
Moody's determines its covered bond ratings by applying a two-step process: an expected loss analysis and a TPI framework analysis.
EXPECTED LOSS: Moody's determines a rating based on the expected loss on the bond. The primary model used is Moody's Covered Bond Model (COBOL) which determines expected loss as a function of the issuer's probability of default, measured by its rating of Aa3, and the stressed losses on the cover pool assets following issuer default. Moody's splits cover pool losses between losses due to market risk and losses due to collateral risk. Market risk measures losses as a result of refinancing risk and risks related to interest rate and currency mismatches. Collateral risk measures losses resulting directly from the credit quality of the assets in the cover pool. The Aa3 rating of the bank results in a low probability of issuer default. In addition, the structural protections, including overcollateralization and interest rate and currency hedges mitigate this risk of losses on the cover pool assets.
TPI Framework: Moody's has assigned a "Timely Payment Indicator" (TPI) of Probable to this programme. Moody's assigns a TPI which indicates the likelihood that covered bondholders will receive timely payments following issuer default. The effect of the TPI framework is to limit the covered bond rating to a certain number of notches above the issuer's rating.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
An issuer downgrade to A1 or below would likely cause a downgrade of the covered bonds unless the issuer chose to commit more overcollateralization by contractually lowering the maximum asset percentage. In order to change the maximum asset percentage the issuer may have to amend the transaction documents. Moody's views the level of committed overcollateralization consistent with the contractual maximum asset percentage, which is currently 93%, and not by the fluctuating asset percentage stated by the issuer in the ongoing investor reports.
Furthermore, due to Moody's TPI framework, an issuer downgrade more than 3 notches to Baa1 or below would likely cause a downgrade of the covered bonds regardless of any increase in the amount of committed overcollateralization. The TPI Leeway measures the number of downgrade notches the issuer could withstand before Moody's TPI framework would cap the covered bond ratings below Aaa. Based on the current TPI of Probable, the TPI Leeway for this programme is 3 notches, meaning that the covered bonds could no longer maintain a Aaa rating if the issuer's rating were downgraded to Baa1.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Approach to Rating Covered Bonds published in July 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings and public information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Todd SwansonAsst Vice President - Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.One Front Street Suite 1900 San Francisco, CA 94111 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Linda Stesney MD - Structured Finance Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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