New York, November 20, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) affirmed the ratings of four classes, upgraded four classes and downgraded one IO class of Lehman Brothers Floating Rate Commercial Mortgage Trust 2007-LLF C5. Moody's rating action is as follows:
Cl. C, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 28, 2012 Upgraded to A3 (sf)
Cl. D, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jun 28, 2012 Upgraded to Baa2 (sf)
Cl. E, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Jun 28, 2012 Upgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Cl. F, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Jun 28, 2012 Upgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Cl. G, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Jun 28, 2012 Upgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. H, Affirmed at B3 (sf); previously on Jun 28, 2012 Upgraded to B3 (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at Ca (sf); previously on Dec 17, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. X-2, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. INO, Affirmed at B3 (sf); previously on Dec 1, 2011 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmations are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio and Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) remaining within acceptable ranges. The upgrades are due to loan payoffs and resulting build up of credit support. The downgrade of one IO class is due to the decrease of the weighted average rating factor of its referenced classes.
Moody's analysis reflects a forward-looking view of the likely range of collateral performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside an acceptable range of the key parameters may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated during the current review. Even so, deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action. There may be mitigating or offsetting factors to an improvement or decline in collateral performance, such as increased subordination levels due to amortization and loan payoffs or a decline in subordination due to realized losses.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating CMBS Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions" published in July 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based Large Loan Model v 8.5. The large loan model derives credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from Moody's loan level LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage, loan structure, property type, and sponsorship. These aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations. The model incorporates the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and assessments; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point . For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and Remittance Statements. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated June 28, 2012. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the November 15, 2012 Payment Date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance decreased by approximately 59% from last review to approximately $294 million. The Certificates are collateralized by eight floating rate whole loans and senior interests in whole loans. The loans range in size from 6% to 36% of the pooled balance, with the top three loans representing 64% of the pooled balance. The trust Herfindahl Index is five.
Moody's weighted average pooled LTV ratio is 93% compared to 95% at last review, and Moody's weighted average pooled stressed DSCR is 1.12X compared to 1.07X at last review.
The largest loan in the pool is secured by fee interests in The Normandy Office Portfolio Loan (36% of pooled balance plus $12.5 million rake bonds) that transferred to special servicing in October 2011 due to imminent maturity default. According to the special servicer (TriMont Real Estate Advisors) basic terms for a loan modification have been agreed by all parties, and the negotiations are under way. The portfolio is comprised of ten class A/B office and industrial buildings totaling approximately 1.4 million square feet (SF) located in the greater Boston area and northern New Jersey. As of the September 2012 rent roll, the portfolio was 69% leased. For the trailing twelve month period ending March 2012, the property achieved a NCF of $8.6 million up from $7.7 million achieved in calendar year 2011. Moody's weighted average LTV for the pooled portion is greater than 100%. Moody's current credit assessment for the pooled portion is Caa3, the same as last review. Moody's does not rate the three rake bonds associated with this loan (NOP-1, NOP-2, NPO-3).
The second largest loan in the pool is secured by fee interests in The Interstate Office Portfolio Loan (18% of pooled balance plus a $2.8 million rake bond class INO ). A loan modification was completed in April 2012, and the loan was returned to the master servicer as a Corrected Loan in July 2012. The maturity date for this loan was extended to October 2014 with principal pay down of $3.5 million and reserves established. The collateral for the loan consist of a 960,000 SF office park with 11 office buildings and three development sites located outside of Atlanta, Georgia in Cobb County. As of the March 2012 rent roll, the office portfolio was 78% leased. Net cash flow for year-end 2011 was $6.0 million and NCF for the first quarter 2012 was $1.7 million. Moody's weighted average LTV for the pooled portion is 83%. Moody's current credit assessment for the pooled portion is B2, the same as last review.
The Park Hyatt Beaver Creek Loan (11% of pooled balance) is the third largest loan in the pool. The loan modification was completed in October 2012. The final maturity date for this loan was extended to September 2013 with principal pay down of $2.0 million. As part of the modification, all of the mezzanine loan ($52 million) was retired. Net cash flow for year-end 2011 was $1.4 million. For the first nine months of 2011, NCF was $1.6 million whereas NCF for the same period in 2012 was up to $2.6 million. Moody's weighted average LTV for the pooled portion is 80%. Moody's current credit assessment for the pooled portion is B2 same as last review.
All the remaining loans in the pool are in special servicing, and are at various stages of modification or negotiations. As of the Novermber 2012 remittance report, the cumulated bond loss totals $91,458 and interest shortfalls total $546,193 as of the current distribution date. The majority of the bond losses affect pooled Class J, and a rake bond class INO (B3). The interest shortfalls affect pooled Class J, as well as rake bond classes INO (B3), NOP-1(NR), NOP-2(NR), NOP-3(NR), and VIS (NR). There are no outstanding advances.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's received and took into account one or more third-party assessments on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction and the assessments had a neutral impact on the rating.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
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Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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Eun Jee Park VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Sandra Ruffin VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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