Mexico, September 10, 2012 -- Moody's de México, S.A. de C.V. (Moody's) has assigned a Baa1 global scale rating and a Aaa.mx national scale rating to Comisión Federal de Electricidad's (CFE) proposed senior unsecured 30-year fixed rate notes (CFECB 12) for up to MXN17,000 million. The rating outlook is stable.
The proposed local notes (certificados bursátiles) are the sixth issuance under the MXN50,000 million certificados bursatiles (local MTN) program established at the F/411 trust with Acciones y Valores Banamex, S.A. de C.V., Casa de Bolsa, Grupo Financiero Banamex, División Fiduciaria acting solely as trustee. CFE will use proceeds from the issuance to finance public works investments (obra publica financiada) related to the "La Yesca" hydroelectric project.
The date of the last Credit Rating Action was on February 7, 2012
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's has reviewed preliminary draft legal documentation related to the debt issuance and the assigned ratings assume that there will be no material variation from the drafts reviewed and that all agreements will be legally valid, binding and enforceable.
CFE, wholly-owned by the Mexican federal government, is Mexico's dominant, vertically-integrated electric utility and the largest electric utility in Latin America, with installed generation capacity of 51.2 GW when including independent power producers (IPPs). CFE is a decentralized government agency which, with certain limited exceptions, pursuant to the Mexican constitution has exclusive responsibility for the strategic development, construction, operation and maintenance of the country's electricity system. The company accounts for the vast majority of Mexico's total installed capacity and electricity production and, since the liquidation of Luz y Fuerza del Centro (LFC) in October 2009 by presidential decree, is also responsible for operating the assets in Mexico City and adjacent areas that were previously owned by LFC. These assets mainly relate to transmission and distribution activities and currently belong to the Servicio de Administración y Enajenación de Bienes, or SAE, another decentralized government agency.
The Baa1 rating reflects the application of Moody's joint default analysis (JDA) framework for government related issuers (GRIs), which takes into account the following four input factors: i) a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of 11 as a measure for the rated entity's standalone creditworthiness (which is consistent with a Ba1 rating), ii) the Baa1 rating of the Mexican government as the support provider, as well as iii) our estimates of a very high degree of implied government support in the case of financial distress and iv) a very pronounced default dependence between CFE and the Mexican government. Moody's assigns BCAs on a scale from 1 to 21, with 1 reflecting the lowest credit risk. The BCA of 11 reflects the increasing indebtedness to fund the sector's required longer term investment needs to meet future electricity demand and the significant unfunded defined pension obligations for its retirees. This has resulted in a progressive deterioration in the credit metrics that are more commensurate to the Ba-rating category. The BCA is further capped by the company's reliance on subsidies for residential and agricultural customers, and the risk of political interference with the established automatic cost recovery mechanisms such that the company's financial profile and its cash flow generation ability could be somewhat jeopardized going forward. That said, the BCA also captures the company's dominant market position, as well as the broad diversification of its operations.
The Mexican government does not guarantee CFE's debt obligations; however, we believe that there is significant likelihood of government support in the case of distress for several reasons, including the company's status as a major government-owned entity, its strategic importance to the country's economy overall, and the low likelihood of privatization in the foreseeable future. Moody's estimate of pronounced default dependence reflects the expectation that there is an elevated likelihood that the government and CFE would default simultaneously due to common risk factors.
CFE's stable rating outlook reflects i) the stable outlook on the rating of the Mexican government, ii) Moody's expectation that implied support or dependence levels from the sovereign will not change and iii) that despite its growing indebtedness the company will report credit metrics that remain consistent with its current BCA rating of 11; such that its three-year CFO pre W/C to debt and CFO pre W/C interest coverage will average at least 10% and 2.0x, respectively.
Since CFE's Baa1 rating is based on Moody's methodology for government related issuers (GRIs), upward rating pressure is unlikely, since an upgrade in the Baa1 rating would require a multi-notch upgrade of CFE's BCA or an upgrade of the sovereign rating under the current assumptions regarding the level of implied government support and the default correlation between CFE and the government.
The ratings or outlook would come under pressure if there is any downgrade in the sovereign rating or outlook, or in the case of a downgrade of the BCA and lower than anticipated implied support. The BCA could be downgraded principally if as a result of higher leverage or impaired ability to generate adequate cash flows CFE's credit metrics deteriorate substantially such that the company reports on a consistent basis CFO pre-W/C to debt and CFO pre-W/C interest coverage below 10% and 2.0x, respectively, on a sustainable basis.
The principal methodology used in rating Comisión Federal de Electricidad was the Regulated Electric and Gas Utilities Industry Methodology published in August 2009. Other methodologies used include the Government-Related Issuers methodology published in July 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com.mx for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Implementation Guidance published in March 2011 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".
Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico, is the Mexican government's agency responsible for the strategic development, construction, operation, and maintenance of Mexico's electricity system. For the last twelve months ended June 30, 2012, CFE reported revenues of MXN308,946 million.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
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The ratings issued by Moody's de Mexico are opinions regarding the credit quality of securities and/or their issuers and not a recommendation to invest in any such security and/or issuer.
Alonso SanchezAsst Vice President - Analyst Corporate Finance Group Moody'sde Mexico S.A. de C.V Ave.Paseo de las Palmas No. 405 - 502 Col. Lomas de Chapultepec Mexico, DF 11000 Mexico JOURNALISTS: 001-888-779-5833 SUBSCRIBERS:52-55-1253-5700William L. Hess MD - Utilities Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V Ave.Paseo de las Palmas No. 405 - 502 Col. Lomas de Chapultepec Mexico, DF 11000 Mexico JOURNALISTS: 001-888-779-5833 SUBSCRIBERS:52-55-1253-5700(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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