The review primarily reflects Moody's view that BPM's internal capital generation is low and that its asset quality is weakening, against the background of a weak economic environment. The review will focus on the ability of BPM's new management to improve the bank's financial flexibility.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's says that between 2011 and 2012, BPM's internal capital generation capacity was weak, even when excluding considerable a goodwill impairment of EUR696 million from the bank's net results, against a continuing trend of deteriorating asset quality.
In September 2012, the bank reported a high 31% annual increase of gross problem loans to 10.7% of loans, with a low coverage of loan-loss reserves, combined with continuing high concentrations to the real-estate and corporate sectors. The bank's business plan shows a planned reduction of its significant real-estate concentration from 24% of loans in 2011 to a projected 21% of the outstanding loans in 2015. In view of Moody's weak GDP growth outlook for Italy, the deteriorating trend of BPM's asset quality is likely to continue well into 2013, exerting pressure on the bank's performance, even though the bank's new management seeks to implement a business plan to improve the bank's financial condition. During its review, Moody's will assess the extent to which management is able to execute its plan in the face of potential challenges both internally -- given the bank's structural constraints to cost flexibility -- and externally, given the macroeconomic headwinds.
FOCUS OF THE REVIEW
During the review period Moody's will assess, among other things:
(1) How the bank addresses structural impediments to cost flexibility;
(2) How the bank remediates the deficiencies highlighted by the 2011's regulatory inspection with respect to credit-risk management, IT and organisation;
(3) The performance of the real-estate portfolio; and
(4) The impact on the bank's top-line profitability of low-cost ECB funding (EUR4.7 billion as of November 2012) and its investment in higher-yield instruments (i.e., Italian government bonds).
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
At present, there is no upwards pressure on the ratings, given the review for downgrade. However, the following factors could justify a confirmation of the ratings (1) material improvement in the internal capital generation on a sustainable basis; and (2) strengthening of the capital base (excluding the government support of EUR500 million hybrid).
Conversely, a downgrade could result from (1) failure to structurally strengthen the group's profitability by regaining some cost flexibility ; (2) unabated deteriorating asset-quality trends; or (3) lower capital adequacy.
List of affected ratings:
- Senior unsecured debt and EMTN, and bank deposits: Baa3; (P)Baa3 / RuR down
- Short-term debt and deposit: P-3 / RuR down
- Subordinate debt and EMTN: Ba2; (P)Ba2 / RuR down
- Tier III EMTN: (P)Ba2 / RuR down
- Junior subordinate EMTN: (P)Ba3 / RuR down
- Preferred stock: B3(hyb) / RuR down
- Bank Financial Strength Rating: D+ / RuR down
- Baseline Credit Assessment: ba1 / RuR down
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
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Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following : parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing this review.
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Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
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Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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Carlo Gori Vice President - Senior Analyst Financial Institutions Group Moody's Italia S.r.l Corso di Porta Romana 68 Milan 20122 Italy Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100Johannes Wassenberg MD - Banking Financial Institutions Group JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Italia S.r.l Corso di Porta Romana 68 Milan 20122 Italy Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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