Treasuries Move To The Upside Following Inflation Data

(RTTNews) - Treasuries showed a strong move to the upside during trading on Friday, adding to the modest gains posted in the previous session.

Bond prices advanced early in the session and remained firmly positive throughout the day. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 5.6 basis points to 4.200 percent.

The strength among treasuries came as the release of closely watched inflation data by the Commerce Department added to confidence about an interest rate by the Federal Reserve in September.

The Commerce Department said its personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inched up by 0.1 percent in June after coming in unchanged in May. The uptick by the index matched expectations.

The report also said the annual rate of growth by the PCE price index slowed to 2.5 percent in June from 2.6 percent in May. The slowdown in year-over-year growth also met estimates.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2 percent in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in May. Economists had expected another 0.1 percent uptick.

The annual rate of growth by the core PCE price index was unchanged from the previous month at 2.6 percent in June, while economists had expected the pace of growth to slow to 2.5 percent.

"The subdued rise in prices will give the Federal Reserve greater confidence that inflation is on track to moderate toward its 2% target," said Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.

He added, "While we are not expecting the news to be quite as good in coming months, we think it would take a nasty upward surprise to inflation between now and September to derail the Fed from cutting rates at that meeting."

The readings on inflation, which are said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve, were included in the Commerce Department's report on personal income and spending.

The report showed personal income rose by less than expected, while personal spending increased in line with economist estimates.

The University of Michigan also released revised data showing consumer sentiment in the U.S. deteriorated by slightly less than previously estimated in the month of July.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for July was upwardly revised to 66.4 from the preliminary reading of 66.0. Economists had expected the reading to be unrevised.

Despite the upward revision, the consumer sentiment index for July is still down from 68.2 in June and marks the lowest reading since November 2023.

Next week's trading is likely to be driven by reaction to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, the accompanying statement could impact the outlook for rates.