Sampo Group’s results for January-June 2023

SAMPO PLC                        HALF-YEAR FINANCIAL REPORT              9 August 2023 at 9:45 am

Sampo Group’s results for January-June 2023

• Strong premium growth of 9 per cent on a currency adjusted basis in January-June 2023 driven by rate increases and high retention; reported growth was 4 per cent

• Currency adjusted underwriting profit grew by 3 per cent despite the group combined ratio softening to 83.8 per cent (82.9) on high large and natural catastrophe claims experience

• Underlying Nordic margin trends remained strong, with If reporting a 0.4 percentage point improvement in the adjusted risk ratio excluding discounting effects

• Profit before taxes increased by 32 per cent to EUR 722 million after adjusting for IFRS 9 (546) but declined on a reported basis (1,515)

• The solvency ratio was stable at 212 per cent including dividend accrual and financial leverage stood at 26.9 per cent, net of announced capital returns

• The listing of Mandatum shares on Nasdaq Helsinki is on track to be completed on 2 October 2023

Key figures

The comparison figures for 2022 have been restated for IFRS 17 but not for IFRS 9, meaning some figures, such as investment income, are not presented on a comparable basis between the reporting periods. Net profit for the equity holders, EPS and return on equity figures include results from life operations. Mandatum was classified as discontinued operations as of 31 March 2023.
*) To enhance comparability, a Group profit before taxes (P&C operations) figure adjusted for IFRS 9, reflecting market value movements, has been provided for the prior year.

The figures have not been audited.

Sampo Group key financial targets for 2021-2023

GROUP CEO’S COMMENT

The first half of 2023 has illustrated the outstanding quality of Sampo’s P&C insurance business as we delivered solid underwriting results despite elevated claims experience. Operational momentum remains strong across the Group, particularly as pricing in UK motor insurance market is rapidly hardening. First half profit before taxes increased by 32 per cent year-on-year to EUR 722 million, after allowing for the newly implemented IFRS 9 accounting framework in the comparison period.

Dynamics in the Nordic P&C insurance market remained attractive over the first half. If P&C achieved solid currency adjusted premium growth of 5.6 per cent in the second quarter, as well as an improvement in underlying margins. We have continued to price for claims inflation, which is stable at 4-5 per cent for the third consecutive quarter, while retention remains high. GWP growth in Private rose to 5.1 per cent in the second quarter, from 3.5 per cent in the first quarter, driven by solid momentum in non-motor lines of business, including 11 per cent growth in personal insurance sold in the business area.

Overall Nordic claims trends are developing in line with expectations but following a benign start to the year, the second quarter saw large and natural catastrophe claims significantly above normal, driven by the property line of business. Still, we achieved a first half combined ratio of 88.3 per cent in Industrial, despite second quarter large and natural catastrophe claims being the highest ever experienced by If. Large claims are stochastic by nature, as evidenced by the difference between the first two quarters of the year, but we are nonetheless taking significant rate action to secure profitability.

Pricing momentum in UK motor insurance market accelerated over the second quarter in response to high claims Inflation and a modest rise in claims frequencies. This has led to higher rate adequacy and customer switching across the market, allowing Hastings to increase customer numbers by 7 per cent year-on-year. However, due to the lag between prices on written business and premiums earned through the P&L, the ongoing claims trend had a negative effect on first half underwriting margins. The high growth rate added further pressure, owing to the upfront recognition of distribution costs. We have therefore adjusted the outlook for Hastings’ operating ratio for 2023 to 88-90 per cent (from below 88 per cent), despite feeling more confident about the market and performance going into 2024.

Taking a step back, the last few years have seen various shifts in claims, including higher claims inflation and fluctuating claims frequencies, both in the Nordics and the UK. This is part of our business; we create value through disciplined underwriting and excellent claims service. Indeed, it is in a more challenging claims environment that the investments we continuously make into our underwriting skills and digital capabilities, and our diversification, really pay off. In the first half, we improved the adjusted risk ratio excluding discount in If by 0.4 percentage points while our group combined ratio of 83.8 per cent was well ahead of the below 86 per cent target.

Following approval at the Annual General Meeting on 17 May 2023, we are on track to list Mandatum on Nasdaq Helsinki on 2 October 2023, thereby turning Sampo into a pure P&C insurer. This will enable Mandatum to build on its solid growth momentum in capital light fee business, where assets under management grew by 9 per cent in the first half to EUR 11.2 billion. In addition to long term growth, Mandatum offers potentially attractive capital returns, driven by the run-off of its legacy with profit portfolio and its strong solvency position. I strongly believe that Mandatum will benefit from becoming an independent company.

As we move into the last couple of quarters of the 2021-2023 strategic period, we look set to deliver against all of our strategic and group-level financial targets. We plan to host a Capital Markets Day on 14 December 2023 to update investors and analysts on our medium-term strategic ambitions and financial plans. Assuming the spin-off of Mandatum proceeds according to plan, it will be the first time we do so as a pure P&C insurer. Given the momentum we have in our business, and the attractive market conditions in the Nordics and improving pricing dynamics in the UK, I am confident that we can continue to drive attractive shareholder value creation.

Torbjörn Magnusson
Group CEO

OUTLOOK

Outlook for 2023

Sampo Group’s P&C insurance business is expected to achieve underwriting margins that meet the annual targets set for 2021–2023. At Group level, Sampo targets a combined ratio of below 86 per cent, while the targets set for its fully owned P&C insurance subsidiaries, If P&C and Hastings, are below 85 per cent and below 88 per cent, respectively.

Following strong performance in the first half of the year, the outlook for If P&C’s 2023 combined ratio has been improved to 81.5 - 83.5 per cent (from 82 - 84 per cent). The outlook for the Hastings operating ratio for 2023 has been adjusted to 88 - 90 per cent (below 88 per cent) to reflect the lag between accelerating rate increases and earned premiums, high uncertainty in claims trends and upfront distribution costs related to high growth.

The combined and operating ratios of Sampo Group’s P&C insurance operations are subject to volatility driven by, among other factors, seasonal weather patterns, large claims and prior year development. These effects are particularly relevant for individual segments and business areas, such as the Danish and UK operations.

The net financial result will be significantly influenced by capital markets’ developments. With regard to Topdanmark, reference is made to the profit forecast model that the company publishes on a quarterly basis.

The major risks and uncertainties for the Group in the near-term

In its current day-to-day business activities Sampo Group is exposed to various risks and uncertainties, mainly through its major business units. Major risks affecting the Group companies’ profitability and its variation are market, credit, insurance and operational risks. At the Group level, sources of risks are the same, although they are not directly additive due to the effects of diversification.

Uncertainties in the form of major unforeseen events may have an immediate impact on the Group’s profitability. The identification of unforeseen events is easier than the estimation of their probabilities, timing, and potential outcomes. Macroeconomic and financial market developments affect Sampo Group primarily through the market risk exposures it carries via its insurance company investment portfolios and liabilities and through strategic investments. Over time, adverse macroeconomic effects could also have an impact on Sampo’s operational business, for example by reducing economic growth or increasing claims costs.

Headline inflation has been declining recently due to lower energy prices. However, core inflation remains high, which may force central banks into further rate hikes that could keep interest rates elevated longer than expected. This may lead to both a significant slowdown in economic growth and a deterioration in the debt service capacity of businesses, households and governments, raising the risk of abrupt asset repricing in financial markets. Furthermore, the re-alignment of energy supplies in Europe will take time, raising the prospect of a potential energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine continues to represent a major economic risk. These developments are currently causing significant uncertainties in economic and capital market development. At the same time rapidly evolving hybrid threats create new challenges for states and businesses. There are also a number of widely identified macroeconomic, political and other sources of uncertainty which can, in various ways, affect the financial services industry in a negative manner.

Sampo Group’s insurance exposures in Russia or Ukraine are limited to certain Nordic industrial line clients, with coverage subject to war exclusions. On the asset side, Sampo has no material direct investments in Russia or Ukraine. Given the limited direct exposure, the biggest risk from the war in Ukraine to Sampo relates to the second order capital markets’ and macroeconomic effects outlined above. There were no material COVID-19 effects in the Group’s insurance operations during the first half of 2023. Given the limited impact of COVID-19 and the increasing difficulty in reliably estimating associated effects, Sampo has not disclosed quantitative COVID-19 effects in its financial reporting since February 2022.

Other sources of uncertainty are unforeseen structural changes in the business environment and already identified trends and potential wide-impact events. These external drivers may have a long-term impact on how Sampo Group’s business will be conducted. Examples of identified trends are demographic changes, sustainability issues, and technological developments in areas such as artificial intelligence and digitalisation including threats posed by cybercrime.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY-JUNE 2023

Sampo Group's P&C operations performed well in the first half of 2023 as operational momentum remained strong, but currency headwinds and large and natural catastrophe claims weighed on reported figures. Gross written premiums and other income from insurance contracts increased by 9 per cent on a currency adjusted basis to EUR 5,031 million (4,821), or 4 per cent on a reported basis. In the Nordics, currency adjusted growth remained solid across business areas, driven primarily by rate actions and continued high retention. Currency adjusted growth in Private accelerated to 5.1 per cent in the second quarter, from 3.5 per cent in the first quarter, driven by strong momentum in non-motor lines. Growth was also supported by successful 1 January renewals in Industrial and Commercial, with good new business volumes and high retention. Personal insurance (excluding workers’ compensation), which is sold across multiple business areas, continued to deliver attractive growth of 11 per cent for the first half. In the UK, premiums grew 37 per cent on a local currency basis as the pricing environment continued to improve. Policy count grew by 7 per cent year-on-year to 3.4 million on the back of growth in both motor and home insurance.

Strong premium growth and solid underlying underwriting margins, partly offset by adverse large and natural catastrophe claims experience, drove currency adjusted growth in the underwriting result of 3 per cent. On a reported basis, the underwriting result declined by 2 per cent to EUR 598 million (611). The Group combined ratio weakened by 0.9 percentage points to 83.8 per cent (82.9), mainly due to large and natural catastrophe claims that were only partly offset by positive prior year development. If’s first half adjusted risk ratio excluding discounting effects improved by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year as pricing continued to exceed Nordic claims inflation, which remained stable at 4-5 per cent for the third consecutive quarter. Hastings reported an operating ratio of 90.8 per cent (87.1) as significant price increases were outweighed by adverse claims cost development and upfront distribution costs related to high growth. Claims inflation remained elevated at around 12 per cent and claims frequency is up against the prior year, partly on adverse first quarter weather effects.

The net financial result of EUR 229 million for January-June 2023 was supported by a net investment income of EUR 362 million, driven by stable fixed income returns and strong equity market performance. This was partly offset by the ongoing effect from the unwind of discounting of EUR -113 million, while changes in discount rates had a positive effect of EUR 9 million.

Sampo Group’s Solvency II ratio was strong at 212 per cent net of dividend accrual on 30 June 2023. Financial leverage was 26.7 per cent at the end of June 2023, up from 23.7 per cent at the end of first quarter. The increase was primarily driven by the dividend paid and buybacks executed during the second quarter. Sampo targets a solvency ratio of 170–190 per cent and a financial leverage ratio of below 30 per cent.

Following the Annual General Meeting’s decision to approve the partial demerger of Sampo plc on 17 May 2023, the process of listing Mandatum on Nasdaq Helsinki in October has continued as planned. Mandatum’s profit before taxes consolidated in the Sampo P&L amounted to EUR 87 million and net profit to EUR 70 million.

On 20 June 2023, Sampo announced a submission of an application for a Group Partial Internal Model for purposes of solvency capital requirement (SCR) calculation to the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority. The model recognises the risk profile of Sampo’s P&C operations better than the standard formula and it is estimated that it would have reduced the group-level SCR by up to EUR 0.3 billion as of the first quarter of 2023. Sampo expects that the application process will be completed during the first half of 2024.

Sampo reported its first half under the new accounting standard "IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts” as well as under "IFRS 9 Financial Instruments”. The comparison figures for 2022 have been restated for IFRS 17 but not for IFRS 9, meaning some figures, such as investment income, are not fully comparable between the reporting periods.

Sampo Group results for January-June 2023

Sampo Group results for January-June 2022

*) Net profit from life operations in January-June 2022 includes Mandatum and Topdanmark’s life operations.

SECOND QUARTER 2023 IN BRIEF

In the second quarter of 2023, Sampo delivered strong premium growth and improving underlying profitability but the result was adversely affected by unfavourable currency movements and an increase in large and natural catastrophe claims.

Gross written premiums and other income from insurance contracts increased by 11 per cent to EUR 2,045 million (1,972) on a currency adjusted basis and by 4 per cent on a reported basis due to the weakening of the Swedish and Norwegian krona. In the Nordics, all business areas saw solid top line growth as price increases continued to cover claims inflation, while retention remained high. Currency adjusted premium growth in Private accelerated to 5.1 per cent, from 3.5 per cent in the first quarter, driven by non-motor lines and 11 per cent growth in personal insurance sold in the business area. Nonetheless, growth was highest in the UK driven mainly by pricing, albeit policy count also developed positively.

The Group underwriting result decreased by 12 per cent on a currency adjusted basis to EUR 306 million (369), or 17 per cent on a reported basis. The Group combined ratio deteriorated by 3.8 percentage points to 83.5 per cent (79.7) on the back of unfavourable claims experience both in the Nordics and in the UK. In the Nordics, If was affected by a market-wide claim related to a rock slide in Norway and other large property exposures, mainly in Industrial. In total, large claims and severe weather (including natural catastrophes), had a negative effect of 7.1 per cent (-1.7) on If’s second quarter risk ratio, partly offset by favourable prior year development of 6.0 per cent (0.0), causing a weakening of the combined ratio to 82.9 per cent (80.3).  However, underlying performance remained solid during the quarter as If’s adjusted risk ratio excluding discounting effect improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. In the UK, claims inflation remained at about 12 per cent, which combined with a modest rise in claims frequency, weighed on margins. Hastings reported an operating ratio of 88.6 per cent (83.7).

The net financial result amounted to EUR 106 million on the back of solid net investment income of EUR 108 million supported by rising running yields partly offset by a rise in short term rates, and strong performance in equities. The insurance finance income or expense (IFIE) amounted to EUR -2 million as the positive effect from the change in discount rates offset the negative effect from unwinding of discounting.

Mandatum’s profit before taxes consolidated in the Sampo P&L amounted to EUR 50 million and net profit to EUR 41 million. The result was driven by a net finance result of EUR 44 million and a fee result of EUR 13 million. Mandatum’s unit-linked and other third-party assets reached a new record of EUR 11.2 billion, supported by solid net flows of EUR 157 million during the second quarter. Mandatum Group’s Solvency II ratio amounted 296 per cent. The post-demerger pro-forma Solvency II ratio, including balance sheet restructuring and dividend accrual based on the last dividend of EUR 150 million paid to Sampo, was approximately 225 per cent at the end of June 2023.

Sampo’s second quarter 2023 figures are reported under the new accounting standards "IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts” and "IFRS 9 Financial Instruments”. The comparison figures for 2022 have been restated for IFRS 17 but not for IFRS 9, meaning some figures, such as investment income, are not comparable between the reporting periods.

Sampo Group results for April-June 2023

Sampo Group results for April-June 2022

*) Net profit from life operations in April-June 2022 includes Mandatum and Topdanmark’s life operations.

SAMPO PLC
The Board of Directors

The Half-Year Financial Report for January–June 2023, Investor Presentation and a video review with Group CEO Torbjörn Magnusson are available at www.sampo.com/result.

Conference call

A conference call for investors and analysts will be arranged at 1:30 pm Finnish time (11:30 am UK time). Please call tel. +1 786 697 3501, +44 (0) 33 0551 0200, +46 (0) 8 5052 0424, or +358 9 2319 5437.

Conference passcode: Sampo

The conference call can also be followed live at www.sampo.com/result. A recorded version will later be available at the same address.

For more information, please contact

Knut Arne Alsaker, Group CFO, tel. +358 10 516 0010
Sami Taipalus, Head of Investor Relations, tel. +358 10 516 0030
Maria Silander, Communications Manager, Media Relations, tel. +358 10 516 0031

Sampo will publish the Half-Year Financial Report on 8 November 2023.

Sampo plans to host a Capital Markets Day on 14 December 2023 to give an update on its medium-term strategic ambitions and financial plans.

Distribution:
Nasdaq Helsinki
Nasdaq Stockholm
London Stock Exchange
The principal media
FIN-FSA
www.sampo.com

Attachment

• Sampo Half-Year Financial Report 2023