Original-Research: KPS AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: KPS AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu KPS AG

Unternehmen: KPS AG

ISIN: DE000A1A6V48

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment

Empfehlung: BUY

Kursziel: EUR 18.00

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger

Growth continues in Q3 2016/17 - acquisition of ICE Consultants Europe SL

creates further potential - forecasts for FY 2017/18 confirmed - Target

Price: EUR18.00 - Rating: BUY

On 11/08/2017, KPS AG released its figures for the 3rd quarter and

confirmed the forecast for the financial year. In the 3rd quarter, revenue

rose by 3.4% to EUR39.7 million (previous year: EUR38.4 million) and

revenue of EUR122.53 million was thus achieved in the first 9 months. Given

the company's own forecast of EUR160 million in revenues, this would mean

further revenue of EUR37.47 million would be required in the 4th quarter

(previous year: EUR37.72 million). This is an indication of an extremely

conservative forecast as, with this forecast, an implicit slight decrease

in revenue for the 4th quarter would be expected. In our view, revenue of

EUR164.25 million should be reached in FY 16/17 and we consequently expect

a revenue increase to EUR41.72 million in the 4th quarter. On the results

side, EBIT remained at the previous year's level in the 3rd quarter at

EUR5.9 million (previous year: EUR6.0 million). This is in particular due

to higher investments in head count, which should form the basis for

further growth.

Furthermore, the acquisition of ICE Consultants Europe SL, Barcelona, (ICE)

was also announced in the past quarter (see corporate news dated

01/08/2017). The finalisation of the acquisition is planned for 02/10/2017.

In addition to the approximately 100 consultants, ICE should also have an

EBIT margin on a par with KPS's and have a similar growth dynamic. Besides

the high profitability, the acquisition should, in particular, create

access to new customers in new industries for KPS. Stronger local contact

with customers through small, regional teams is planned. At the same time,

the majority of the value creation will be realised in the SmartFactory in

Dortmund. This will make higher margins possible in the long term, as this

will allow an industrialisation of the consultancy approach. ICE

effectively has a broader industry focus than KPS and assists companies in

the sectors of retail and wholesale, consumer products, automotive and

pharmaceuticals. This provides KPS with cross-industry expertise and new

customer groups. Given ICE's excellent market position and the potential

synergies, we regard the acquisition as highly valuable; however, the

purchase price and financing must be analysed in further detail for a

qualified evaluation. Further information in this regard is to be published

later.

In our view, KPS AG is extremely well-positioned in the current market

environment and should be able to achieve gradual margin improvements with

dynamic revenue in the long term with the industrialisation of the

consultancy approach. Besides providing further important access to

customers, the recent acquisition of ICE will also be able to provide KPS

AG with supplementary expertise. We there-fore expect the long-term growth

dynamic of KPS to be even further strengthened by the acquisition. Based on

our DCF model, we have determined an unchanged fair value of EUR18.00 per

share and assign a BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/15579.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen

Jörg Grunwald

Vorstand

GBC AG

Halderstraße 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach §34b Abs. 1 WpHG und FinAnV Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm

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