Original-Research: Greiffenberger AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: Greiffenberger AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Greiffenberger AG

Unternehmen: Greiffenberger AG

ISIN: DE0005897300

Anlass der Studie: Research Update

Empfehlung: BUY

Kursziel: EUR 7.10

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Philipp Leipold, Dominik Gerbing

* The German economy has receded for the first time in one year, by 0.2% in

the second quarter of 2014. At the same time, the German Engineering

Association (VDMA) corrected its growth forecast for 2014 from 3% to 1%.

* The weak May and a month of June far below expectations led, after a

positive first quarter of 2014, to decreasing sales for the Greiffenberger

Group in the first half of 2014, by -1.6% to EUR 75.68m (PY: EUR 76.90m).

While corporate international sales compared to the previous year period

increased by 8.7%, sales within Germany decreased by approx. 17% because of

a very hesitant order situation, particularly at the biggest subsidiary

ABM.

* The start of production in the new plant in Poland went as planned in the

first half of 2014. As estimated, after initial start-up costs in the first

half year, the new plant will not have any effect on the annual result of

the subsidiary ABM on a full-year 2014 basis and a positive net

contribution is expected from 2015.

* Because of the declining group sales, the start-up costs for the new

plant in Poland in the first half year, and the significantly increased

personnel costs, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) at EUR 0.68m

were significantly below the value of the previous year and below our

expectations.

* For the second half of 2014 we estimate a significant improvement of EBIT

through a slight growth in sales. For one, this should be achievable

through the harmonized production at the plant in Poland within the second

half of 2014 and a resulting increase in productivity and through the

optimization and efficiency measures which had already taken effect at the

half-year mark of 2014. Since the 2014 business year, because of the newly

opened plant and the fluctuating first half-year, must be seen as a sort of

transitional year for the Greiffenberger Group, we adjusted our forecasts

for the total year of 2014 accordingly.

* After a fluctuating first half of 2014, very restrained ordering

behaviour among customers in the second quarter, and a slightly overcast

outlook for the world economy in 2014, we adjusted the target price for the

share of the Greiffenberger AG from previously EUR 9.80 to EUR 7.10.

Despite the adjustment, the price target remains above the price of the

successful equity increase in April (EUR 6.00) and at the current price

level of EUR 4.73 also contains further potential for upward movement.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/12456.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen

Jörg Grunwald

Vorstand

GBC AG

Halderstraße 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach §34b Abs. 1 WpHG und FinAnV Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm

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